Republicans outperform the polls in every presidential election since 2004 — except one

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Republicans outperform the polls in every presidential election since 2004 — except one
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Political News and Conservative Analysis About Congress, the President, and the Federal Government

With the 2024 elections just four days away, former President Donald Trump is leading in the national polls for the first time in his three bids for the White House. While Trump lost the popular vote twice, he’s polling archive goes back as far as 2004, when former President George W. Bush won reelection against John Kerry. The national polling average had Bush leading by 1.5 points, but heFormer President Barack Obama was predicted in the national polls to crush John McCain by 7.

Shor pointed to 2020 early voting figures, which showed that “early voters were considerably less Democratic than people thought.” As 2024 early voting data are coming out ahead of the elections, Democrats are once again turning out at apodcast that pollsters might be fudging the numbers in some states to make them look less competitive so Republicans stay home on Election Day, believing resistance is futile.

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