'Both sides should be very careful what they wish for, as the potential gain of choosing a weaker general election opponent is, as a matter of probability, much less statistically significant than the consequences of losing that gamble.' -TianaTheFirst
In a double whammy redux of the worst of 2016, it's not just that Democrats are once again pretending that mainstream conservatives are more dangerous than Donald Trump. Now, the dregs of the GOP are in on the game, playing footsie with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in his bid to challenge Joe Biden for the Democratic presidential nomination.
That didn't stop billionaire DeSantis donor David Sacks from boosting Kennedy, or Jenna Ellis, the attorney censured for lying during Trump's campaign to steal the 2020 election, from saying Kennedy is"principled and understands the Constitution and its guarantee to protect the rights of Americans.
As evidenced by the above, it's hard to argue that the first is remotely true, so what gives? It seems obvious that just as Democrats thought that Trump is easier to beat than his primary competitors in a general election, ostensible conservatives believe that RFK Jr. can be used to knock out Biden and secure a GOP victory in 2024, especially in the case of Sacks, who is literally banking his own political influence on DeSantis winning the ultimate prize next year.
Right before the pandemic hit in 2020, I warned conservatives that hoping that Bernie Sanders bested Biden were playing with fire. Sure, perhaps the Vermont senator was, let's say, 10% less likely than Biden to beat Trump. But in a general election, even the worst candidates still can bank on at least 40% of the popular vote. For an example of translating the probability of the Electoral College, recall that FiveThirtyEight granting Trump a 33% chance of winning was considered an outlier.
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