When eight Republican candidates merge Voltron-like to challenge former President Donald Trump and make their case for the 2024 nomination, they will illustrate the difficulty of toppling the frontrunner.
The working theory of virtually every Republican campaign is that if they could get Trump one-on-one, they can win.There is a prospective winning non-Trump coalition among GOP primary voters. Despite his majorities in the national polls, Trump is at 43.2% in Iowa and 44.3% in New Hampshire, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
There are also some who want a scorched-earth de-Trumpification of the Republican Party, not just a different nominee. Over time, however, Trump was able to win back some of his soft supporters. A combination of the indictments and DeSantis’s early surge revitalized a listless Trump campaign. In the Ipsos poll, Christie’s net favorability is minus 28 points and only 14% of likely GOP voters said they were considering voting for him.
This approach also naturally limits a candidate’s appeal to primary voters who want to move on from Trump.’’
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