Republicans are favored to win the House majority, but a scenario where Democrats retain control is not as far-fetched as you may think, according to New York Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn.
“‘But the idea that Democrats can hold the House is not as ridiculous, implausible or far-fetched as it seemed before the Dobbs ruling overturned Roe v. Wade. It is a real possibility — not some abstraction in the sense that anything can happen.’”
And if the GOP wins all 11 seats that are rated as “lean Republican,” then the party would need to win just six of the 30 toss-ups to win the majority. “But if Democrats can do what they appear to be doing in the Senate, there’s no reason to assume they couldn’t already be doing something similar in the House,” the analyst said. “If we had as many House polls as we do in the Senate, perhaps Democrats would appear to be ahead in the race for the House as well.”
There is a major reason why Democrats may be better poised to maintain control of the Senate rather than the House, according to FiveThirtyEight’s founder, Nate Silver.
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