Migration will help keep rent hikes in check as vacancies rise, according to USC’s Casden Multifamily Forecast.
Whiplashed tenants who’ve seen rents soar by double digits may get some relief in the next two years in the form of smaller rent hikes.
According to the forecast, apartment rents will rise just 2.4% annually over the next two years in Los Angeles County, 3-4% a year in Orange County and 5-7% in the Inland Empire. “You would expect to see that out-migration ultimately leads to higher vacancy. And so, it’s really is a migration story,” Green said. “That’s why we take pains to say in the report that if migration changes, then all of this changes.”
“If all of your units don’t have a refrigerator, you can’t get that certificate of occupancy,” she said. “So this is all impacting our ability to actually deliver units to the market.” In the four-county region, rents are forecast to rise fastest in the High Desert. That includes the “outlying” San Bernardino County, a sprawling area stretching north from the San Bernardino city limits to Victorville and west to Twentynine Palms. The average rent for a vacant apartment there is projected to rise 17% to $1,543 a month by the summer of 2024.
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