Warning from top scientist advising government says cases are still at very high levels.
Behavioural scientists advising government"strongly recommend" monitoring how well people were keeping to the rules. Sage documents showed keeping the R number below one would require 80% of contacts to be found within 48 hours.
The scientists agreed that social distancing would need to be maintained even if test and trace was effective.However, the government's testing tsar said it would be"very difficult" to get the results of home tests in less than 48 hours, never mind find their contacts. Tests at drive-through centres are faster.And he warned that even if test and trace was successful, easing restrictions would keep cases at 8,000 a day and lead to around 80 deaths a day. Contact tracing starts when somebody tests positive. There is disagreement between Sage scientists with some arguing it should start when symptoms are reported, to increase the speed of the process. Others argue"false alarms" could discourage people from complying with the instruction to isolate.On March 13, just before the government changed strategy,"Sage was unanimous that measures seeking to completely suppress spread of Covid-19 will cause a second peak" The advice said neighbourhood or local lockdowns could undermine national measures or lead to a significant issue of disorder. Even if every adult with a smartphone had the contact tracing app, it would not identify more than 50% of contactsThe PM's top adviser Dominic Cummings attended six out of the 34 meetings Hairdressers and other"personal care services" should not reopen soon as they"typically rely on highly-connected workers who may accelerate transmission" The risk from attending large events is no higher than small ones because"close contact" is the biggest risk Family gatherings are"particularly high risk" and religious services with high levels of physical contact are"higher risk" Since April 23, Sage has called for routine testing of all healthcare staff and on 7 May said this should take place even when there are no symptoms Modellers disagree on the impact of moving into"phase 2" including some children going to school, with some worried it will bring the R number above 1 Sir Patrick said:"During one of the most serious pandemics in our recorded history, people are understandably concerned and worried about what the future holds and are looking to the science for answers. "Openness and transparency around this disease is a social imperative, which is why it's important we don't wait to publish minutes and evidence."
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