The European security debate suffers from a fundamental contradiction: it calls for greater military strength but ignores the actors who already possess it. This is particularly evident in Europe's dealings with Türkiye.
The European security debate suffers from a fundamental contradiction: it calls for greater military strength but ignores the actors who already possess it. This is particularly evident in Europe's dealings with Türkiye.
Realist explanatory models are experiencing a renaissance not seen since the end of the Cold War. A single question dominates the global security policy agenda: How do states and alliances secure their existence? The international order is undergoing profound change. On the one hand, traditional alliances are faltering; on the other, the proliferation of drones and unmanned weapons systems is fundamentally altering the nature of modern warfare.
Even states with limited industrial capacity can now inflict significant damage on major powers. Europe is directly affected by both developments. The US increasingly appears as an unreliable guarantor of European security, while Russia continues to increase its military pressure.
Nevertheless, Europe has so far failed to establish an independent security leadership or to sufficiently strengthen its defence capabilities. Under such conditions, it would be logical to reconsider existing alliances and forge new partnerships. The most important candidate in Europe's neighbourhood is undoubtedly Türkiye.
Nevertheless, the country continues to be ignored by many European decision-makers. recently bracketed Türkiye with China and Russia, claiming that the “EU must shape its future” away from these three countries. AThis article takes this report as its starting point and examines why Europe often hinders itself in addressing its security policy challenges.
The authors of the ECFR report outline three steps to restore Europe's ability to defend itself: a common decision-making architecture comprising NATO structures, EU instruments and flexible coalitions; powerful and rapidly deployable armed forces; and a coordinated European defence industry as its industrial backbone. The first reaction upon reading this is: That sounds sensible. The second question is: But how exactly?
And the third leads to the real problem: If these proposals are so obvious, why hasn't Europe implemented them in recent decades? Yet, since Trump's first term in the White House in 2016, it had already become clear that the American security guarantee could no longer be taken for granted. At the same time, a war has been raging on Europe's borders for years. So why did the promised paradigm shift in security policy fail to materialise?
A look at the positions of leading European decision-makers provides some clues. to signal resolve to Russia. EC vice-president Kaja Kallas, on the other hand, recently described such an idea as "extremely dangerous" and questioned whether its proponents had considered the practical consequences. The clearest assessment came from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte before the European Parliament: anyone who believes Europe can defend itself without the US should "keep dreaming".
Zelenskyy urges Putin for direct talks in neutral country, proposes Türkiye as possible hostZelenskyy urges Putin for direct talks in neutral country, proposes Türkiye as possible hostThe report ultimately provides the answer to why these plans have failed for years – albeit unintentionally. It describes the goal without convincingly explaining the path to achieving it.
Uniting 27 sovereign states with differing budgets, arms industries, threat perceptions, and strategic interests into a common defence architecture is not merely a matter of political will. It is a structural problem. The Covid pandemic has shown how limited European solidarity was, even on relatively simple issues like procuring protective equipment. Anyone who assumes that these same institutions could now coordinate joint command structures, armaments programs, and nuclear deterrence underestimates the power of national interests.
The crucial question remains unanswered: What has fundamentally changed today that would allow it to succeed where it has failed in the past ten years? Neither the Russian threat nor the uncertainty surrounding US security guarantees is a new development. Yet the report reads as if simply listing the right measures is enough to ensure their implementation. The real problem runs deeper than any strategy report.
Many European policymakers and experts fail to see the world as it is today – and not as it once was. The power asymmetry that Europe benefited from for decades no longer exists. Economically, Europe remains one of the most important players, but militarily, other states have caught up or even surpassed it. The US security umbrella has long masked this development.
Should Washington further reduce its protection guarantee, Europe's military and strategic shortcomings would become glaringly obvious. ignores TürkiyeIgnoring such a partner for political or ideological reasons is not an analytical judgment, but a strategic error. This omission says less about the importance of Türkiye than about the limitations of European thinking.
Zelenskyy urges Putin for direct talks in neutral country, proposes Türkiye as possible hostZelenskyy urges Putin for direct talks in neutral country, proposes Türkiye as possible hostUS says it destroyed two Iran drones threatening traffic in Strait of HormuzUS intelligence reportedly concerned over 'growing espionage threat' from IsraelIran departs Türkiye for World Cup base in Mexico amid US visa issuesIran blasts US 'discriminatory treatment' over World Cup visa refusals
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