Stats SA will publish GDP data from the first quarter of 2023 this week.
Stats SA will publish South Africa’s gross domestic product figures for the first quarter of 2023 this week, revealing whether the country has entered into a technical recession or not.
However, as the months progressed, industry data started switching up the narrative, with sectors of the economy reporting surprisingly positive data. In a few short months, economists are now expecting the quarter to show marginal GDP growth – sparing the country from a technical recession. Over the first quarter, the economy enjoyed only one day without load-shedding. On top of this, the country spent 23 hours per day without electricity, with 83% of the time at load-shedding stages 3 and 6.
This resilience came at an enormous cost, however, with companies incurring much higher input costs to secure electricity by running generators for extended hours or installing renewable generation capacity. In addition to this, even if South Africa managed to grow the economy in arguably some of the worst economic conditions it has faced , it does not mean that the country is in the clear.“Load-shedding worsened at the start of Q2. The economy endured power outages every single day in April and May, with more than half of the time spent at stages 4 to 6. Based on our calculations, real GDP will likely shrink by about 0.1% in Q2,” it said.
The bank’s sector review shows that risks to growth across all industries is to the downside, with the exception of Electricity, gas & water and General government .
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