Here's what some closely watched market indicators say about recession risks.
Dubbed “Dr. Copper” for its track record as a boom-bust indicator, the metal is up around 8% this year to around $9,005 a metric ton as China’s economy reopens.
But copper prices have pulled back recently, reflecting some caution as investors reassess expectations for the speed and scale of China’s rebound.Eurozone business activity made a surprise return to growth in January and Chinese growth has slowed less than expected.Most economists still expect a US recession, but businesses and some banks have cut the probability of one.
“A lot of leading indicators and surveys look quite abysmal at face value, although many of them are stabilizing or even bouncing back,” said Patrick Saner, head of macro strategy at Swiss Re. “In the context of inflation, though, core services is what matters and that is underpinned by a still very strong labor market that isn’t showing many signs of slowing.
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