Long after the public health threat posed by the COVID-19 pandemic eases, the crisis could spur lasting changes in how Americans work, spend, save and invest, experts say.
Wynne Beckmann has worked in retail for 13 years, through the upheaval of the Great Recession a decade ago. But getting furloughed from her job at a Westchester, New York, mall in March felt different.
In March, most states issued stay-at-home orders and shut down nonessential businesses to curb the spread of the virus, largely shuttering restaurants, malls, theaters and factories. The ripple effects resulted in a record 20.5 million layoffs in April and a 14.7% unemployment rate, highest since the Great Depression and up from a half-century low of 3.5% in February.
After contracting at a 4.8% annual rate in the first quarter, the U.S. economy is forecast to shrink 32.7% in the current one, Moody’s estimates, the worst performance in modern history. Zandi expects the economy to recoup about half of that in the third quarter as the nation climbs out of recession, but then just tread water until it musters a stronger comeback late next year.
The financial blow from job losses like Liu's could spawn a more cautious mindset, especially for college grads as well as millennials whose careers were detoured when they entered the workforce during the Great Recession and now face another setback. Consumers also seem leery about venturing back to gathering places, a Harris Poll survey shows. The share of Americans saying they’ll wait a year or more before resuming certain activities is substantial: 27% say they’ll hold off on flying; 18%, going to the movies; and 11%, going out to dinner.The Enfield, Connecticut resident, who works as a family support navigator at the Department of Developmental Services in Massachusetts, used to be an avid moviegoer with her husband.
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