China announced on Wednesday the most sweeping changes to its tough zero-COVID policy since the pandemic began three years ago, loosening rules that curbed the spread of the virus but had hobbled the world's second-largest economy and sparked protests.
A delivery driver picks up medicine from a pharmacy as coronavirus disease outbreaks continue in Beijing, December 7, 2022. REUTERS/Thomas Peter
"Obviously, the consumption sector will benefit the most, but also the service sector and industries that involve human contacts and travel, will also benefit significantly. "It means China will see a rebound from 3% in 2022 to 5.5% in 2023 in GDP growth, which is a rare market with faster expansion next year but with a low base effect. However, it does not mean everything will be fine again straight away as the zero-COVID has left a scar on consumer and business confidence, which will take longer than 2020 to repair this time.""MSCI China has rebounded nicely, valuations have risen and can very gradually normalise.
"But some of this is already in the price. Now it's going to be wait and see how it's executed. The reality on the ground is still one of continued pressure, even as the outlook is improving somewhat.""This change of policy is a big step forward. In particular the home quarantine policy will help to reallocate resources to focusing on treating patients with severe symptoms and patients with need for treatment other than COVID.
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