Economists at TD Securities discuss the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision and its implications for the AUD/USD pair.
On hold The Bank may decide to hold off from hiking for two main reasons: 1) 30% of households were deemed to be 'at risk' of mortgage stress and 2) the impact of prior rate hikes has yet to filter through. Less important but possibly relevant is Gov. Bullock operating without a full bench, with no Deputy Governor and Chief Economist to provide alternatives on monetary policy. AUD/USD -0.50%.
If the Bank states 1) ‘The central forecast is for CPI inflation to continue to decline and to be back within the 2-3 percent target range in late 2025’ then this should make a Dec hike less likely and/or 2) ‘To date, medium-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.
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