Despite unusually warm sea-surface temperatures, this year's Atlantic hurricane season has been surprisingly quiet. Experts attribute the subdued activity to strong upper-level winds known as wind shear, which have disrupted the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. However, the National Hurricane Center predicts increased activity in the coming days with a system in the Atlantic boasting a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.
In what was expected to be an active Atlantic hurricane season, storm activity has been unusually quiet during what is considered the peak of the season. In recent years, the Atlantic has typically produced multiple tropical storms and hurricanes during this time, driven in part by warming sea-surface temperatures.
But the 2025 season has been different.Sea-surface temperatures have remained warmer than average, but ocean warmth is far from the only factor that fuels hurricanes. Typically, hurricane season peaks around Sept. 10. An average Atlantic season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist for the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, told Scripps News Group in Fort Myers that strong upper-level winds have kept storms at bay.IN CASE YOU MISSED IT | Researchers say modern, powerful hurricanes need a new category'We do actually have fairly enhanced vertical wind shear,' he told the Scripps News Group. 'So it's stronger than normal. We have what we call basically a tropical upper tropospheric trough. So an area of low pressure high up in the atmosphere and that tends to lead to strong shear.'It has been since Aug. 28 that a named storm has formed in the Atlantic basin.So far this year, there has been only one hurricane in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Chantal is the only named storm to directly impact the U.S., making landfall in late June as a weak tropical storm in South Carolina.Activity expected to ramp upThe Atlantic hurricane season may become more active in the coming days. The National Hurricane Center says a disturbance in the open Atlantic has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next five days. The system is expected to move west, though its potential threat to land remains unclear.'A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms,' the National Hurricane Center said. 'Although dry and stable air is expected to limit development during the next day or so, gradual development is anticipated thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of this week.'Klotzbach said he expects activity will increase as conditions become more favorable.'Overall, the vertical wind shear that's being forecast as we get later into September, early October, is much lower than what we currently have,' he said.
Hurricanes Atlantic Hurricane Season Wind Shear Tropical Storms Climate Change
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