NOAA hurricane forecaster Matthew Rosecrans unpacks what factors in August contributed to a lull in storm activity.
While the National Hurricane Center is expecting a tropical wave of low atmospheric pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean to develop further over the next week, weather satellite images show storm activity more typical of late June than late August recently. Despite multiple forecasts projecting an unusually active hurricane season, why has tropical activity been so subdued?
When a system is named, you can track it using our Texas Hurricane and Tropical Storm Tracker. Matthew Rosencrans, the lead hurricane forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. government’s umbrella agency that oversees the National Weather Service and the Hurricane Center, said multiple factors have contributed to the recent lull in tropical activity.
Saharan dust or allergies? Breaking it down for San Antonio. “Dry, hot, dusty air puts puts a real damper on any kind of thunderstorm activity, and without those thunderstorms, you can’t get tropical cyclones to form,” Rosencrans said. It’s not just Saharan dust that has hindered tropical mischief from developing.
Here’s the difference between a tropical disturbance, depression, storm and hurricane. Why is this more northerly track a problem? Tropical waves exiting Africa have been moving into an area where sea surface temperatures are cooler than the 80-degree threshold necessary to develop tropical systems. Another piece of the puzzle is stability in the upper levels of the atmosphere.
Here’s what caused Hurricane Beryl to curve north and completely sidestep San Antonio. “Given the same atmospheric conditions that we have in place, we still expect the initial forecast of 17 to 24 named storms to be correct,” he said. His overall seasonal outlook included a 10% chance of a near-normal season with 14 to 15 named storms. Late-season storms, especially during active hurricane seasons, can flourish much later than many people would like or expect.
National Hurricane Center National Weather Service MDR Matthew Rosencrans Matthew Rosecrans Hurricane Beryl Southeast Texas Atlantic Sub-Saharan Africa San Antonio Main Development Region Sahara Desert U.S. West Africa Mexico Gulf Of Mexico HAZY SKIES African Cabo Verde Islands Senegal Yucatán Peninsula Houston Gulf Coast Florida Texas Hurricane Category 5 Tropical Storm Tracker
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