Did you get Croatia, Argentina, Morocco or France in the office sweepstake? For you – and the millions of fans back home those teams represent – the World Cup dream is still alive, something even the best statistical models would not have predicted.
Included in the 18 were cautions for Argentina boss Scaloni and his assistant, Walter Samuel, and one to the Netherlands’ Denzel Dumfries after the penalty shootout was over, meaning 15 were brandished on the field during play – more than in any match in a near-century of World Cups since the first one in 1930.
Nahuel Molina of Argentina and Daley Blind of the Netherlands in action during their World Cup quarterfinal. It is worth noting that Croatia have only won one game in 90 minutes at this World Cup – the 4-1 against Canada in the group. Of course, they have not lost either, with four draws out of five being a rare record for a nation making it through to this stage.
On balance, Croatia have conceded as many chances as they have created, but this is the thing about xG – it is far more volatile in small samples. In tournament football, things don’t even themselves out over a longer period as they would in a season lasting nine months because thereIf Croatia can continue to defy the odds with limited attacking potency, then that is just simply part of the World Cup structure.
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