Russia’s military and economic alliances across Central Asia are looking shakier after its invasion of Ukraine. “Are we going to be next?”
Instead, Kazakhstan has joined other Central Asian countries along Russia’s southern frontier in staying neutral on the invasion, leavingas the only ex-Soviet state that has offered full-throated support. Kazakhstan has promised to enforce Western sanctions against Moscow, said it would boost oil exports to Europe via routes that bypass Russia, upped its defense budget and hosted a U.S. delegation meant to coax the Central Asian country closer to Washington’s orbit.
During his visit, Mr. Tokayev told Russian state television that his country wouldn’t help Russia violate sanctions, but stressed that Russia would remain a key ally. “Kazakhstan is in no way renouncing its allied obligations,” he said. In early July, Kazakhstan’s Finance Ministry published a draft order that would follow Western sanctions restrictions on some exports to Russia.
After the invasion, the rhetoric is being taken seriously, particularly since Kazakhstan is the only Central Asian nation that borders Russia. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan all lie to the south of Kazakhstan. None have supported the invasion, and Uzbekistan has publicly said it would not recognize the breakaway Donbas republics.
“But I think it won’t come to this,” Mr. Grozin said. “Kazakhstan’s elite has a greater instinct for self-preservation than their colleagues in Ukraine.” Mr. Kazakbayev submitted his resignation eight days later because of health reasons, his replacement told local media. A person familiar with the decision said he resigned at Moscow’s request.
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