These Purdue vs. Arizona prop picks expect Purdue's offense to heave from deep on Saturday, March 28.
The Purdue Boilermakers have the most-experienced roster remaining in the NCAA Tournament, and the six-point underdogs will need to lean on their veterans to have a chance against the Arizona Wildcats on Saturday, March 28.
Senior shooter Fletcher Loyer has hit exactly four 3-pointers in five of his last six games, including all three NCAA Tournament games. In this stretch, he has hit 53.5% of his shots from beyond the arc. Shooting efficiently and at volume like that is Purdue’s best — perhaps only — path to this upset. Arizona does not shoot many 3-pointers, but it scores with ruthless efficiency at the rim. To counter that, the Boilermakers need to see someone like Loyer shine. That urgency may sound like an alarm, but it is an emphasis more than anything else. No matter the game state, Loyer will be encouraged to chuck from deep. And the way he is shooting right now, he may need to pull up only six or seven times to cash this plus-money prop.There was some thought to betting on Braden Smith’s 3-pointers Over as well as Loyer’s. Smith’s is set as low as 1.5 with the Over paying +100. Raising that to 3+ threes would garner a +310 payout. But Smith is 7-of-30 from beyond the arc in the seven games of the postseason thus far. While he is experienced enough to not be cowed by a cold streak, and Purdue will certainly look to Smith to produce to keep up with Arizona, his shooting struggles scare off any such thought. He will still have the ball in his hands on almost every possession, though. The Boilermakers’ best counter to the Wildcats’ pace will be Smith pounding the ball into the floor until he initiates Purdue’s offense. With his shot struggling, initiating the offense should lead to only more playmaking. Smith has dished out 10+ assists in three of seven games this postseason, lending it a bounty of credibility when considering his Over/Under prop is set at 8.5 with the Over costing -105. Is one more assist not worth 60 cents?Consider this a bet on the full-game Under 152.5. Purdue should try to slow down this Elite Eight matchup. By their default state, the Boilermakers play excellent transition defense and are one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country, both aspects that should lessen Arizona’s pace. Doing so will then allow Purdue to settle into a good, albeit not great, defense. That defense encourages bad looks from deep with frequency, an area that will frustrate the Wildcats, while keeping multiple big bodies in the paint. Jaden Bradley is a passer more than a scorer in the first place. Bogging Arizona down into the halfcourt will force him to be even more of a playmaker rather than look for his own buckets.: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links. Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds. In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets. While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.Purdue vs Arizona Prediction, Picks & Odds for Saturday's March Madness GameDuke vs LSU Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for Tonight's Women's March Madness GameIf you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
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