With the army looking ready to fracture, the risk of more violence is growing
THE SCRIPT goes like this. First, the government cuts subsidies on basic goods such as bread, sparking riots. Middle-class people, including doctors and university lecturers, then take to the streets of the capital, Khartoum, spearheading a national uprising against military dictatorship. The regime responds by deploying police and security forces. Civilians are arrested and beaten; some are killed.
That was how events unfolded in 1985, the year of Sudan’s previous democratic revolution, which led to the overthrow of Gaafar Nimeiry and elections soon after. And it is a template that today’s protesters across Sudan are determined to follow.
There are signs that some elements within the armed forces are beginning to move against the president and his cohorts. Navy officers exchanged fire with members of Mr Bashir’s notorious spy agency and paramilitary forces when they tried to chase people away with tear gas and live ammunition. Soldiers have been spotted chanting with protesters. A video on social media shows some servicemen distributing bottles of water to demonstrators from army trucks.
This puts the president, and the country, in a dangerous position. Thousands have been arrested and at least 50 people killed since December. In February Mr Bashir declared a nationwide state of emergency, dissolved the government and replaced all 18 state governors with men from the armed forces or security service. In March he agreed to step down as head of the ruling National Congress Party, but he has yet to confirm he will not run for re-election in 2020.
Events in Sudan will be watched nervously by Mr Bashir’s fellow Arab leaders, who fear a second phase of the Arab spring that swept away several of them in 2011. Protesters in Algeria have recently forced the resignation of their ailing president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Who might be next?
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