A new study shows how students can better understand and interpret conditional probabilities.
How trustworthy is a positive HIV test result? How probable is an actual infection when the test is positive? Even professionals often get such questions wrong, which can lead to misdiagnoses and unnecessary surgeries in practice.
To illustrate this situation, we can imagine that 100,000 people have been tested: Only, say, 100 people are infected, of which 96 receive a positive result. Of the 99,900 healthy people, 2% -- that is, 1,998 -- also receive a positive result. Consequently, of the 2,094 people in total with positive test results, only 96 are actually infected -- corresponding to almost 5%. As such, a positive test result is not yet, by itself, cause for alarm.
Nicole Steib, Theresa Büchter, Andreas Eichler, Karin Binder, Stefan Krauss, Katharina Böcherer-Linder, Markus Vogel, Sven Hilbert.A new study shows how neurochemicals can influence blood vessels. The findings may change how researchers interpret results from functional magnetic resonance imaging ...
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