Stocks Analysis by Lance Roberts covering: S&P 500, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, SPDR® S&P 500, S&P 500 Futures. Read Lance Roberts's latest article on Investing.com
Okay, I took a little poetic license, but the point is that while we try, predictions of the future are difficult at best and impossible at worst. If we could accurately predict the future, fortune tellers would win all the lotteries, psychics would be richer than Elon Musk, and portfolio managers would always beat the index.
It is important to remember that Goldman Sachs was wrong when it was most important, particularly in 2000 and 2008.Goldman’s chief equity strategist David Kostin forecasted the S&P 500 will climb by 9% to 5100 at year-end 2022.The problem, of course, is that theIt isn’t just Goldman Sachs always making bullish and erroneous forecasts but the vast majority of Wall Street analysts. Such errors in predictions are most evident in expectations for forward earnings.
Most importantly, once predictions stretch beyond 3-days, the accuracy is no better than a coin flip. That data, collected by Doppler radar, radiosondes, weather satellites, buoys, and other instruments, is fed into computerized NWS supercomputers where numerical forecast models go to work.
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