The Mariners have a really good problem. Their farm system is loaded enough that the next few seasons are going to be about figuring out how and when the next w
Feb 19, 2026; Peoria, AZ, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Kade Anderson during spring training photo day in Peoria, AZ. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images The Mariners have a really good problem.
Their farm system is loaded enough that the next few seasons are going to be about figuring out how and when the next wave arrives. Obviously, not every top prospect can arrive at once. Still, the Mariners can’t sit on them forever and pretend patience is the answer. But they also cannot rush the next wave just because the big-league roster has an immediate need.
Kade Anderson might be the easiest name to get impatient about. He’s something ridiculous in Double-A Arkansas, going 6-0 with a 1.13 ERA and checking every box development could want. The stuff plays well. He’s not blowing his opponents away with velo, but rather keeping them off balance with a polished pitch mix and command.
And the Mariners still shouldn’t force it this season. Anderson doesn’t look far away. So this is not his fault. Seattle’s rotation situation is already complicated enough without turning one of the organization’s best pitching prospects into a midseason call-up just because he’s earned it.
But giving him a few cameo innings or putting him into the bullpen doesn’t make much sense right now. Maybe if they need some bridge innings in the postseason a late August call-up could work. Until then, holding off til 2027 is the smarter play. That’s when the Mariners can finally start rearranging the furniture.
Luis Castillo feels like the obvious veteran arm who would be moved if Seattle wants to clear salary and open a spot. Logan Gilbert’s long-term future will matter too, especially if extension talks don’t go anywhere. And if Emerson Hancock’s value stays high, the front office will have to at least consider what that could bring back. This is the more complicated projection.
There are plenty of people who believe Ryan Sloan has an even higher ceiling than Anderson, and that’s not hard to understand. He has a nasty fastball, and if the changeup continues to grow into the kind of secondary weapon many suspect, we can start tossing around King Felix-level dreams. Okay, that is a massive comparison. But seriously, Sloan’s ceiling might be that loud.
But he definitely has some cleanup work to do. The Mariners can afford to be patient here because they already have Anderson closer to the big-league rotation, and because the organization has to sort out what the rotation even looks like after the next round of offseason decisions. By 2027, the Mariners should have already made room for Anderson. After that, the next question becomes how much more movement is coming.
Does Seattle trade another starter? Does someone get hurt? That last part is possible. A late-2027 debut is not out of the question if everything clicks and the Mariners need an arm.
But the cleaner bet is 2028. Sloan makes his MLB debut in March 2028, with a chance to push that up if the rotation opens earlier. Holy smokes, into the Montes era we go. Lazaro Montes has the kind of power that changes timelines.
Already sitting on 19 home runs and 52 RBI in Double-A while slashing .248/.353/.560, we’re no longer talking about a prospect who is only fascinating. Montes is kicking the door hard enough that the Mariners have to start making plans around him. Could Montes get a September look in 2026? Absolutely.
There’s nothing wrong with getting an early read on how his power translates to major league pitching. The better bet is a full 2027 arrival. That timeline fits the roster perfectly. Randy Arozarena is headed toward free agency.
The Mariners will probably opt-out of Víctor Robles’ contract. Rob Refsnyder will not be part of the roster next season. Who knows if he’ll even finish this current one in a Mariners uniform. The outfield will look very different by next spring, and Montes should be tearing the cover off the ball in Triple-A Tacoma before the end of 2026.
If Montes shows up and looks ready in Spring Training, there’s no reason to play the service-time game or pretend the outfield needs another stopgap blocking him. Michael Arroyo is one of the more interesting names here because his path is not as clean as Montes’. And that might actually help him. Arroyo’s versatility gives the Mariners options.
He can play middle infield and he can handle the corner outfield spots. He gives the M’s the kind of roster flexibility they value, and that will play a role when injuries inevitably start messing with whatever plan the front office has going into the season.
Even if the Mariners have outfield openings, they can probably open the season with some mix of Julio Rodríguez, Lazaro Montes, Dominic Canzone and Luke Raley, plus the usual cheap veteran flier they always seem to find. Arroyo has had a solid season in Double-A Arkansas, slashing .269/.345/.409 with seven home runs, 30 RBI and 10 stolen bases. If he gets to Triple-A and keeps hitting, his defensive flexibility becomes the tiebreaker.
The Mariners always need players who can move around. They always need insurance. And by June 2027, someone on the big-league roster will almost certainly be hurt, underperforming or both. That’s when Arroyo gets his shot.
Felnin Celesten’s talent is obvious, but the path is very crowded. That’s the reality of having a deep farm system. Eventually, the Mariners are going to have more prospects than obvious places to play them. Celesten could absolutely become part of the next core.
And at the same time, he could also become the prospect another team demands in a major trade before he ever gets to Seattle. Felnin Celesten had a 2-run HR in the first & follows it by roping a run scoring single to RF. E-9 allows another run. That is not what fans want to hear, but it’s the honest version.
If Celesten is still in the system by 2028, he should be banging on the door. The switch-hitting upside and athleticism is undeniable. But making room will require decisions. Maybe Celesten becomes the shortstop and Colt Emerson slides back to third base.
Or maybe Emerson sticks at short and Celesten moves elsewhere. Either way, Celesten’s timeline feels more like a 2028 conversation than a 2027 one. He still has development ahead of him, and Seattle has enough infield depth to avoid forcing the issue. Celesten makes his debut in July 2028, assuming the Mariners don’t use him as trade currency first.
This is where the Mariners have to be smarter than impatient. Anderson and Montes look like the first two real arrivals from this group. Arroyo follows because versatility travels. Sloan gets a longer runway because young pitching development should take priority.
And Celesten is the wild card. Either way, the Mariners’ next core is not some distant idea anymore. It is getting close enough to start circling dates. Tremayne Person is the Publisher for Mariners On SI and the Site Expert at Friars on Base, with additional bylines across FanSided’s MLB division.
He founded the Keep It Electric podcast in 2023 and covers baseball with a blend of analysis, context, and a little well-timed side-eye just to keep things honest. Tremayne grew up a Mariners fan in Richmond, Va. , and that passion ultimately led him to move to Seattle to cover the team closely and become a regular at home games. Through his writing, he connects with fans who want a deeper, more personal understanding of the game.
When he’s not at T-Mobile Park, he’s with his dog, gaming, or finding the next storyline worth digging into.
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