The NHC is monitoring an area of low pressure that is expected to pass directly over Florida in the coming days.
to develop over the northeastern Gulf before gradually moving northeastward over Florida and toward or near the southeastern U.S. coast by early next week, the NHC said in its most recent update about the system.
While it is not currently a named, forecasters say slow development is possible. As of Wednesday afternoon, the NHC gave the disturbance a 20 percent chance of tropical development over the next seven days. If the disturbance organizes and reaches tropical storm strength, it would become the second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical Storm Arthur formed in June, bringing heavy rainfall to parts of Texas.
The nextIn addition to heavy rain, dangerous rip currents are expected in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas, AccuWeather meteorologist Alexander Duffus told, as well as a chance at additional impacts such as strong winds and storm surge, if a tropical storm were to develop. In its preseason outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The agency forecast between eight and 14 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes.
NOAA also projected one to three major hurricanes, defined as Category 3 or stronger storms with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Storm Path: Tampa, Orlando and Daytona Beach Within Impact Area Current forecast guidance suggests the disturbance could take shape in the northeastern Gulf and move generally northeastward, potentially tracking near Florida's Gulf Coast before approaching parts of the Southeast coast early next week.
Even if the storm doesn't organize, meteorologists are warning that Florida could feel some impacts, such as heavy rain.
"At a minimum, this will be a rainmaker for Florida," Florida meteorologist Matt Devitt posted on X."A lot of tropical moisture moving through. The brighter the colors get in the bottom image, the greater chance you have of seeing more rainfall. *IF* it can fight off some shear and dry air, it would have a shot atover warmer than average water temps in the Northeast Gulf. Stating the obvious, that is not a lock or guarantee at this point.
Again, the odds right now are at 20%, but still possible. Too early to know how strong or weak it could be if it tries to form.
"this weekend and next week as moisture aggregates," he said. "It does NOT look like a drought buster, but 'may' be substantial. While the heaviest bullseye should stay over the NE Gulf, on & off downpours will spill over into the state through midweek. It’s early for totals, but the map gives an early, general idea.
"The map Berardelli shared showed a chance of 4 to 6 inches of rain along Florida's Gulf Coast, with amounts around 3 inches much more widespread inland. Because the system has not yet formed, significant uncertainty remains regarding its future track and intensity. Small changes in where the low-pressure center develops could substantially alter where impacts are felt.
However, the NHC map of the storm's path shows it passing over North and Central Florida before emerging in the Atlantic. Unlike systems that emerge from tropical waves traveling thousands of miles across the Atlantic from Africa, this disturbance is an example of what forecasters"If a tropical system develops in this region, it would be an example of homegrown development," Duffus said.
"The risk for tropical development will be due to a slow-moving front entering the southeastern U.S. Slow-moving frontal boundaries can in some cases produce areas of low pressure that break off from the front. If the low-pressure spends enough time over warm Gulf or Atlantic waters, it can further organize and develop into a tropical storm.
" Homegrown systems develop much closer to land—often in the Gulf or near the Southeast. Because they form close to populated coastlines, they frequently provide less warning time than long-track Atlantic hurricanes. The potential development comes during a hurricane season that forecasters expect to be quieter than recent years because of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño occurs when sea-surface temperatures in parts of the equatorial Pacific become warmer than average.
For the Atlantic Basin, El Niño often increases upper-level winds known as wind shear. Strong wind shear can disrupt developing tropical systems by preventing thunderstorms from organizing around a central circulation. That does not mean storms cannot form. Experts frequently note that it takes only one storm to create a major disaster, regardless of how active or inactive the overall season may be.
For now, forecasters emphasize that the disturbance near the Gulf remains only a developing area of low pressure. However, with warm waters and several days over open water possible, weather officials say residents along Florida's Gulf Coast and elsewhere in the Southeast should stay informed as the system's future becomes clearer.
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