Weather models are hinting at the potential for an offshore wind event and heightened wildfire risk in parts of the San Francisco Bay Area next week, the National Weather Service said on Wednesday.
The event could occur next week, roughly by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, according to the weather service. Meteorologists said confidence in the forecast is low, as it's difficult to pin down forecasts several days out with certainty. If desiccating winds were to develop, they would mark the first offshore wind event of the fall season. These winds, often called Diablo Winds, occur commonly in September and October.
"It’s not a really strong signal," Dalton Behringer, a forecaster with the weather service, told SFGATE on the phone."It sticks out now, because it is that time of year that this kind of thing could happen and would be significant if it did." Offshore winds are known for drying out the vegetation and fanning wildfire flames. They blow in a north to northeast direction, pushing hot air from inland valleys toward the coast. The Bay Area has seen some of its most devastating wildfires during offshore wind events, including the the 2019 Wine Country firestorm.
Jan Null, a meteorologist with Golden Gate Weather Services, said of the eight weather models, one suggests that weak offshore winds could develop on Wednesday in the North Bay at elevations above 1,000 feet, possibly kicking up in the Diablo Range as well. "This is seven days out, the models are so oppositely opposed," Null said."It’ll be interesting to see which wins."
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