Britain's economy will be around 3 percent poorer over the long term if it ...
LONDON - Britain’s economy will be around 3 percent poorer over the long term if it leaves the European Union and retains a customs union with the bloc, the option favored by the opposition Labour Party, academic forecasters predicted on Thursday.
“Leaving the EU for a customs union will make it more costly for the UK to trade with a large market on our doorstep, particularly in services which make up 80 percent of our economy,” NIESR economist Garry Young said. After May’s deal was rejected three times in parliament, forcing her to delay Brexit, the government has spent more than four weeks in talks with Labour - so far without reaching any agreement.
Britain’s finance ministry estimated in November that the government’s preferred policy would reduce per capita GDP by 2.1-2.7 percent, depending on the effect on immigration, though its assumptions are not directly comparable with NIESR’s.
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