The Port of Los Angeles expects container volumes to fall 7 percent next fiscal year amid trade uncertainty and shifting import patterns.
Trade policy uncertainty and volatile global shipping conditions are expected to weigh on volumes even as retailers accelerate orders ahead of potential disruptions.into the U.S. West Coast could be in for a greater decline over the next year, according to the country’s largest port.
Freight Rates Are Climbing Fast as Peak Shipping Season Kicks Off Early For the current 2025-2026 fiscal year, total container throughput has amounted to 9.4 million TEUs through the end of May, constituting a 2.4 percent dip for the first 11 months of the period. On Tuesday, the port said it processed 840,165 TEUs in May, 17.2 percent above last year.
The increase follows a slower-than-usual May in 2025, when President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs enacted last April forced many companies to This scenario was echoed heavily in the recent month’s loaded imports totals, which came out to 449,370 TEUs, a 26.2 increase compared to last year. Conversely, loaded exports came in at 107,657 TEUs, 10.4 percent lower than last year. Empty containers totaled 283,138 TEUs, 18 percent above May 2025.
“Our strong May performance reflects the resilience of the American consumer and the ability of businesses to adapt in a continuously changing environment,”Seroka noted that cargo continues to move unimpeded through the port, with no vessel backlogs or cargo delays. The comments come as container shipping’s peak season hasas retailers aim to get in front of many of the concerns presented to the industry since the start of the war in Iran in late February.
“We’re seeing cargo move for a combination of reasons, including inventory replenishment, concerns about fuel costs, trade-policy uncertainty and preparation for upcoming retail seasons,” Seroka said. “Companies are operating with shorter planning horizons and taking advantage of opportunities when they emerge. ” According to Seroka, the San Pedro Bay port is expected to handle more than 900,000 TEUs in July, which would be below the 1.02 million containers of throughput counted last year.
That month was the busiest in the gateway’s history, as companiesDan Letter, CEO of warehousing giant Prologis, said during the briefing that supply chains and warehouses are prepared to handle another cargo surge with minimal disruption.
“I see our users as ready. Our customers are leasing space,” Letter said, noting that they are making “five-plus-year decisions” so they’re ready to endure unexpected supply chain shocks, such as the Federal Reserve’s increase in interest rates throughout 2022 or the war in Ukraine. Through the first five months of the 2026 calendar year, the Port of Los Angeles has handled 4,119,869 TEUs, 1.4 percent ahead of the pace set during the same period last year.
The port released the projections along with the company budget for the upcoming fiscal year, which will be increased 25 percent to $3.4 billion. The year-over-year increase is primarily due to a 31 percent boost in the port’s capital improvement spending program.
Additionally, the heightened spending reflects subsidy increases in the Port’s Clean Truck Fund rate, cost-of-living increases across staff salary and benefits, as well as outside inflationary pressures.
“We’re enhancing our infrastructure, advancing our sustainability initiatives, and ensuring we keep the port competitive in the global economy,” said Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass in a statement. For the coming 12 months, capital improvement spending will be the highest in more than a decade at $302 million. Projects will focus on container terminal modernization, enhancing public access infrastructure and improving transportation in and out of the port.
Signature projects include the $154 million Avalon pedestrian bridge and promenade gateway project, which kicked off construction in March 2026. Construction is underway on the $74 million rail expansion at the port’s 302-305 berths and the $130 million reconfiguration of the SR 47/Vincent Thomas Bridge interchange. in decades, was issued in late 2025. The 200-acre terminal will feature two new berths and 3,000 linear feet of new wharf designed for larger next-generation container ships in natural deep water.
Even with a deal to end the U.S.-Iran war set to be signed Friday, unresolved security questions are keeping carriers and shipowners on the sidelines. President Donald Trump claimed Monday that ships are beginning to freely transit the Strait of Hormuz after he virtually signed a framework agreement to put an end to the protracted conflict in Iran. WWD and Women's Wear Daily are part of Penske Media Corporation. © 2026 Fairchild Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
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