With African swine fever ravaging China's hog industry, U.S. experts are expecting pork prices to go higher and likely stay elevated well into 2020.
At least 129 cases of African swine fever have been reported in China since the first case was confirmed last August, and there have also been cases in Vietnam and other parts of Asia.
"African swine fever in China could result in an extended period of elevated pork pricing in the U.S.," wrote J.P. Morgan analyst Thomas Palmer in a research note last week. He said there's still no containment of the swine virus, and the replacement of the herd in China is likely to take "a minimum of 20 months," meaning "elevated demand for non-domestic pork will continue into 2020, at the least.
And restaurants are closely watching the price of pork bellies these days because bellies are used to make one of America's favorite foods: bacon. According to Maloni, there's been a gradual increase in demand for bacon to the point where the "running total of pork-belly disappearance" is tracking up 3.9% on a year-over-year basis, or the best growth since the summer of 2017.
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