Popular investor newsletter expects S&P 500 to keep struggling over next months
At the beginning of this month, the StockTradersAlmanac, a widely followed investor newsletter, officially issued its “Best Six Months MACD Seasonal Sell” signal for both the
After experiencing five consecutive strong months and gains that were double the historical average, Almanac expected a slowdown in the equity market rally. Historically, April ranked as the best month for the Dow Jones Industrial Average in terms of average percentage change, and the second best for the S&P 500. For Nasdaq and“In general, April is a solidly bullish market month overall with a high average percent and plurality of gains across the board,” it wrote.Considering the strong performance in the first quarter of 2024, Almanac analyzed previous instances where April was a down month following a positive Q1.
Finally, since 2024 is a presidential election year in the US, Almanac further narrowed down its analysis to only election years with underperforming Aprils.“Q4 and the last 8 months are stronger overall but not without significant damage in 1956, 1960, 2000 and 2012. Sitting presidents were running for reelection in 1956 and 2012 whereas 1960 and 2000 were open fields,” it added.
“A move to this level would be an 8.6% pullback from the closing high and 8.8% from the intraday high,” they noted.
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