She's up to a 61-in-100 chance of winning, per the 538 forecast.
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaking at the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation's Phoenix Awards Dinner in Washington, Sept. 14, 2024.A constant refrain in political analysis is, essentially, that nothing matters. Sometimes, it can feel like not even a massive gaffe or scandal can affect how voters feel about a candidate, and not even major news events can move public opinion on issues..
But because presidential elections are decided by the Electoral College, it's the state polls, not national polls, that really matter. And in addition to the national polls we've already mentioned, state polls also show real gains for Harris. In New Hampshire, a poll from Saint Anselm College Survey Center found Harris up by 8 points over Trump,showed Trump leading Harris by just 4 points in Iowa, a state our model had been expecting Trump to win by 8.
And yes, shifts in non-swing states matter, even if Harris is unlikely to win them in the end. Polling movement is often correlated from state to state, meaning that if Harris is gaining in Iowa and Arkansas — not to mention nationally — she's probably also gaining in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.than our polling averages in reacting to correlated movement in polls).
In fact, the polls are so good for Harris that the model is actually forecasting a national popular vote that is more Democratic than the current national polling average. Our model calculates an implied national popular vote based on estimated turnout in each state, and today that number is closer to Harris+4.2 than Harris's 2.9-point lead in national polls.
Ultimately, though, it is still early days: We have seven weeks left until Election Day, and many major firms have yet to release any post-debate data. We will have to keep watching the data to see how Harris's and Trump's chances change. As history has shown, campaign events can unearth new information, reinforce perceptions of candidates, or deprive underdogs of a last chance to shake up the campaign.
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