Common wisdom holds that Democrats are likely to retake the House in next year’s midterms. Perhaps — that’s what history would suggest.
CNN’s Harry Enten summarized those data well in a recent appearance: Looking at the Washington Post/IPSOS poll, Enten found that Republicans retained a lead over Democrats on which party voters trust more to handle the economy, crime and immigration.
The GOP leads the Democrats by 7 percentage points on the economy, 13 points on immigration and a whopping 22 points on crime. If those are the issues voters care most about next November, it’s hard to see the GOP losing control. Why toss out the party you trust for one that you don’t?Republicans top Democrats among Americans concerned about crime, immigration and the economyIt will be very hard for Democrats to prevail if they cannot close these gaps among the voters whose support is crucial for their hopes. This points to a hard fact for Democrats. It’s not enough to attack Trump and drive up dissatisfaction; they have to build themselves up, too. That’s not something they’ve been able to do all year despite the turmoil Trump’s tariffs and rhetoric have caused.is a great example of that principle at work. President Joe Biden was much more unpopular back then than Trump is now. Trump has a 46% job approval rating on the RealClearPolitics polling average. Biden’s was an atrocious 42% as 2022’s Election Day dawned. Democrats nevertheless gained a seat in the Senate and lost only 9 House seats, surprising election analysts who expected a stronger night for team red. Post-election analysis showed why that happened: The president’s party typically loses big with voters who “somewhat disapprove” of the president’s job performance. But in 2022 Democrats won that demographic by 4 points.Yes, they tacitly conceded, things might not be going the way you want. But can you trust them to do better?nonetheless decided they preferred his party to the GOP. That changed by 2024, but that’s because Biden didn’t turn the country around in the extra time voters gave him.You may not love me, he can argue, but you cannot trust them.Trump carried voters who did not like either major party candidate in 2016 and 2024. That’s why he won both races: Voters saw him as the lesser of two evils each time.Trump still inspires massive amounts of hatred among Democrats. That passion could easily inspire a higher relative turnout for them, a factor that could help them mitigate their structural disadvantage.If unemployment goes up and inflation doesn’t go down, that edge on the economy could go away. Other events could go poorly for Trump as well.remain historically high for him, and his party remains more trusted than its opponent.Henry Olsen, a political analyst and commentator, is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.
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