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Biden and Trump virtually tied in a matchup with third-party candidates included, with Biden garnering 39 percent support and Trump seeing 38 percent support. Another 12 percent chose independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., followed by one percent for independent candidate Cornel West and one percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
TIPP Insights notes that this is significant because “independents in the last election favored Biden 54% to Trump’s 41%.” African-Americans, for instance, gave 87% of their vote to Biden in 2020, compared to just 12% for Trump. But that’s changed dramatically in 2024: Black voters say they favor Biden by 59%, a 28% decline from four years ago, while 15% say they back Trump, a three percentage-point gain. All told, it’s a 31-point swing.
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