As the presidential race moves into its final seven weeks, with Joe Biden holding a lead that remains steady but not conclusive, he and President Trump face contrasting challenges, a new poll shows.
President Trump’s talk of a Democratic war on the suburbs is not winning him votes in the actual suburbs. But it may help him in blue-collar areas that proved decisive in 2016.Registered voters who solidly back Trump and those who solidly back Biden report a similar likelihood of voting, about 95% on average. The president’s problem comes with those who say they only lean toward voting for him. They average a 75% likelihood, the poll finds, compared with 92% for those who lean to Biden.
Biden leads Trump nationwide by 9 points, 51% to 42%, the USC Dornsife poll finds. Biden’s margin has shrunk slightly since last week, a change that could reflect a tightening of the race but is small enough that it may simply be random fluctuation in the poll’s daily tracking. Views of Biden are closely divided, 50% favorable and 47% unfavorable, the poll found. In contrast to Trump, only about a third of voters say their view of Biden is “extremely unfavorable.” Independents have a net negative view of both candidates.
Trump has made little pretense of fishing in those waters. Instead, his campaign has focused on driving up the vote among groups that already support him, focusing on identifying and turning out people who didn’t vote in 2016.That’s not an impossible strategy: Key states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan have large numbers of white residents living in rural and exurban areas who didn’t vote in the last presidential election.
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