Political polarization contributed to unexpectedly close midterm election Analysis from JimAntle:
That may turn out to be how this year’s elections end, depending on the outcome of the Georgia Senate runoff next month, but definitely describes the 2020 result — even if Republican gains in the House and competitiveness in battleground states that year were overshadowed by former President Donald Trump’s claims to be the rightful winner.
That House number includes races in which the Republican is leading — and, in one case, in which the Democrat has already conceded — but have yet to be called by the Associated Press at this writing. Still, Republicans and Democrats merely trading places is the likeliest outcome after the highest inflation in 41 years, rising crime in many areas, uncertainty abroad, large majorities telling pollsters the country is on the wrong track, and an unpopular president.
The strongest performance was Obama’s 52.9% in 2008 after Republicans had presided over the Great Recession, the Iraq War, and Hurricane Katrina. When the election happened, Bush was underwater by 40 points with a 28% approval rating, according to Gallup. A then-73-year-old John McCain still finished with 45.7% of the vote.
Obama had a filibuster-proof Democratic majority in the Senate after convincing Sen. Arlen Specter to switch parties. It didn’t even last to the 2010 midterm elections, as a Massachusetts special election went Republican in a foreshadowing of that November’s results.
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