Agricultural economist WandileSihlobo provides more colour on these dynamics and their impact on grain prices.
The United States Department of Agriculture’s Pretoria office is a key institution, and it is worthwhile to keep an eye on their views.
In this week’s podcast, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo, provides more colour on these dynamics and their impact on grain prices. Still, it is well above the long-term average. Considering the USDA's yield forecast of 5,70 tonnes per hectare, South Africa's maize harvest could amount to 15,00 million tonnes in the 2022/23 season, marginally down from 15,33 million tonnes of the 2021/22 season. Still, this will be well above the annual consumption of 11,80 million tonnes and maintains South Africa as a net exporter of maize. Under such conditions, South Africa's maize exports could be above 3,00 million tonnes.
The countries whose imports could decline, depending on how widespread the favourable rains are, are the southern African countries. In the La Niña years, the whole region receives higher rainfall which should support crop production. The major issue that farmers in some southern African countries could struggle with is the higher input costs.
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