One X-factor and a season prediction for all 30 MLB teams.
Will Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers get that World Series three-peat? Or, can a club like the Phillies, Mets, or Cubs break L.A.'s National League dominance? What about in the American League? Yankees superstar Aaron Judge and Mariners slugger Cal Raleigh put up some big numbers, but Toronto's still hungry after last year's epic World Series.
What's in store for 2026? We break down each team – an offseason recap, an X-factor, and a prediction – as we get set for a new campaign. JUMP TO: AL East | AL Central | AL West | NL East | NL Central | NL West World Series odds: +2200Win total over/under: 85.5 Offseason recap: The Orioles raised their floor this winter with a franchise-altering long-term signing of five-time All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso. They also added slugging outfielder Tyler Ward , closer Ryan Helsley , and starters Shane Baz and Chris Bassitt to a starting rotation that finished last season ranked 26th in the majors in ERA. Baltimore's lineup now has more power and the rotation has strong depth despite missing an ace. If the young core in the lineup – led by MVP candidate Gunnar Henderson, former All-MLB First Team catcher Adley Rutchman & 22-year-old former No. 1 overall pick Jackson Holliday – can bounce back from a disappointing season. X-factor: Rutschman. Once the allure of Alonso wears off, all eyes will be on the 28-year-old Orioles catcher to see if he can recover from his downturn these past couple of seasons. Last year, he recorded a 90 OPS+ and hit nine home runs in 90 games. Rutschman returning to MVP-caliber production is critical to Baltimore qualifying for the postseason and making a deep run. Season prediction: Baltimore's failure to acquire a true frontline starter put a damper on an otherwise strong offseason. Without an ace, the O’s don’t look as strong as the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays in the American League East, with a fourth-place finish serving as their expected outcome unless/until they make additions at July’s trade deadline. – Deesha Thosar World Series odds: +1600Win total over/under: 87.5 Offseason recap: Boston focused on bolstering the rotation and run prevention after missing out on big bats. The Red Sox went deep on pitching this offseason – winning the Ranger Suarez sweepstakes in free agency and adding veteran Sonny Gray via trade from the Cardinals, as well as right-hander Johan Oviedo to a staff that’s led by Garrett Crochet. They signed first baseman Willson Contreras, who adds a veteran presence in the lineup. X-factor: Third baseman Caleb Durbin. This could end up being the biggest move of Boston’s offseason after it acquired him from the Brewers in February. Durbin finished third in the voting for NL Rookie of the Year last season, so it was a surprise to see him traded. He’s slated to be the Red Sox’ starter at third, replacing Alex Bregman, after a standout spring training that saw him hit .354 and thrive at the hot corner. Durbin's contact-first approach could be the difference in a lineup that needs more spark. Season prediction: This team will go as far as its elite pitching staff and young stars take it. There is a clear reliance on outfielder Roman Anthony to lead the lineup after a strong rookie campaign that was ended early by injury. Boston has no real 40-home run power threat, so a lot will fall on its young outfielder. The Red Sox are in line to compete for a wild card spot, but winning the division seems less likely. -Thosar World Series odds: +1000Win total over/under: 90.5 Offseason recap: The Yankees believed they ended the 2025 season with a strong roster, so they focused on running it back while hoping ace Gerrit Cole returning from injury will be enough for a deep postseason run. They brought back outfielder Cody Bellinger on a five-year deal, while outfielder Trent Grisham accepted his qualifying offer after a 34-homer season. First baseman Paul Goldschmidt and veteran infielder Amed Rosario also returned on one-year deals to help round out the infield. The only notable outside addition was lefthander Ryan Weathers, who should help solidify the back end of the rotation. X-factor: First baseman Ben Rice. The 27-year-old enjoyed a breakout season in 2025, hitting 26 home runs and posting an OPS+ of 131 in 138 games. The Yankees are counting on Rice to continue building from that excellent season, which will lengthen the lineup in a significant way. His Baseball Savant page is covered in red, indicating that the majority of his offensive metrics are among the top 5% in MLB. Season prediction: Aaron Judge and the Bronx Bombers should be able to win the AL East with largely the same roster that tied with the Blue Jays for the division crown last season. The biggest question is whether the team is strong enough to go back to the World Series and win it all. I’m not convinced they’ve done enough to end their 16-year championship drought. — Thosar World Series odds: +8000Win total over/under: 77.5 Offseason recap: The Rays focused on adding a bunch of mid-to-low level outfielders to address the complete lack of production from that group last year. They acquired second baseman Gavin Lux and outfielders Cedric Mullins, Jacob Melton and Luke Fraley to improve last year's team's 85 OPS+ although none are legitimate needle movers in a vacuum. Tampa Bay also acquired righthander Nick Martinez, who proved himself to be a reliable arm over the past two seasons with the Reds, and southpaw Steven Matz, who had become a strong bullpen option last season but is returning to a starting role. X-factor: Lefty Shane McClanahan. The two-time All-Star is returning to the mound for the first time since 2023, and all eyes will be on him to see if he can return to being the Rays' ace after dealing with significant injuries. His potential success is crucial to the rotation’s ceiling. He’s now four years removed from receiving down-the-ballot votes for the Cy Young award. Season prediction: With third baseman Junior Caminero headlining the offense after his breakout star turn at the age of 21, it’s hard not to get excited about what the Rays could achieve with a healthy roster, even if the rest of the lineup is a bit underwhelming. Tampa Bay’s biggest challenge is the strength of the AL East. Even if the Rays manage a .500 record, it won’t be enough to place better than fifth place. - Thosar World Series odds: +1500Win total over/under: 88.5 Offseason recap: After taking the Dodgers to Game 7 of the World Series, the Jays started this past offseason aggressively. They jumped the market for righthander Dylan Cease, who has struck out at least 200 batters in each of the last five seasons, and signed him to a mega seven-year, $210 million deal. They signed Japanese third baseman Kazuma Okamoto, bolstered the bullpen with righties Tyler Rogers and Cody Ponce and acquired outfielder Jesus Sanchez from the Astros . Toronto fell short in its pursuit of superstar outfielder Kyle Tucker and lost Bo Bichette at shortstop and Chris Bassitt in its rotation. It was an extremely busy offseason up north. X-factor: Okamoto is facing a ton of pressure to essentially replace Bichette. He did have a Bichette-like season in Japan’s Central and Eastern League, producing a .992 OPS in 77 games, but his future success is not as predictable as Bichette’s, given the real possibility that he could struggle to adjust to MLB pitching. That would be less than ideal for a Blue Jays roster that is looking to build off last season's success and get back to the World Series. Season prediction: Expectations are sky-high for superstar first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays look positioned to match them. Toronto should again be going toe-to-toe with the Yankees all year, but there are some concerns surrounding the lineup’s production, especially potential regression from veteran George Springer. It will be another tight race for the division title. This year, no one would be surprised if they grabbed it. - Thosar World Series odds: +50000Win total over/under: 67.5 Offseason recap: The White Sox shocked the industry when they won the sweepstakes for Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami, increasing the excitement around the team for 2026. Murakami hit 265 home runs in eight seasons for the Yakult Swallows in Japan, including a 56-homer season back in 2022. Murakami brings raw power that could put him alongside the best sluggers in the game. The South Siders also added righty Jordan Hicks as a bounce-back candidate in the rotation and closer Seranthony Dominguez at the back end of the bullpen. Chicago also finally traded outfielder Luis Robert Jr. to the Mets, receiving promising infielder Luisangel Acuña in the deal. X-factor: The young core. If you want to feel old, look at the White Sox’s starting lineup. Everyone besides 20-HR outfielder Andrew Benintendi and 30-year-old outfielder Austin Hays was born after 1999. Chicago’s youth movement is exciting and an interesting storyline to follow for a team that has no postseason aspirations and is staring down yet another fifth-place finish. Season prediction: Usually, the White Sox can be viewed as an intriguing trade-deadline seller, but there are no real candidates who could be on the move. So the White Sox will just do their own thing this year, showcasing their potential for the future while surprising if they finish anywhere but last. - Thosar World Series odds: +7000Win total over/under: 79.5 Offseason recap: The Guardians' offseason featured a bunch of humdrum one-year moves headlined by acquiring first baseman Rhys Hoskins as a potential buy-low candidate with power that signaled cost-cutting was more important than contention. The Guardians had one of the quietest offseasons in the big leagues while making no notable additions. They added journeyman righthander Shawn Armstrong and brought back cacher and clubhouse favorite Austin Hedges and pretty much called it a winter from there. X-factor: Second baseman Travis Bazzana. The 2024 No. 1 overall draft pick will start the year in Triple-A, but he has a strong chance to make his major-league debut on the earlier side in the 2026 season. Bazzana homered against the Dodgers in spring training, then went to the World Baseball Classic and turned heads for Team Australia. It’s not a matter of if, but when he will make a difference for the Guardians this year. Season prediction: After winning the AL Central last year, the Guardians are barely trying to finish with a better record than the White Sox. Their projected luxury tax payroll is $98 million, ranked 29th out of 30 teams. That’s also the lowest payroll the franchise has seen since 2011 — not counting 2021’s post-pandemic season. Cleveland will likely finish well below .500. - Thosar World Series odds: +2000Win total over/under: 85.5 Offseason recap: The Tigers nearly missed the postseason after a strong start in 2025, picking up the AL's final wild card with 87 wins. To avoid a recurrence, Detroit's offseason was defined by massive pitching additions that completely changed the outlook of the team. Former Astros' ace Framber Valdez . Tigers' legend and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, who finished 2025 on a roll and with a 3.85 ERA. Stud reliever Kenley Jansen. Those three arms join a pitching staff already led by reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, who has more to prove after winning a record-setting $32 million arbitration case in his last season before hitting the free-agent market. X-factor: Shortstop Kevin McGonigle. It will be fascinating to see how the Tigers’ top prospect, who hit 12 homers and slugged .550 in 206 plate appearances in Double-A as a 20-year-old last summer, backs up the hype and expectations this season. His ceiling is that of a superstar, but that will take time to be established. For now, he has a real chance to be a difference-maker in October, when the offense will have to step up the most. Season prediction: Detroit is making a run for the World Series before Skubal hits free agency. Barring last year’s strange late-season collapse, the Tigers should be able to handily win the division before making what they hope will be a deep, deep postseason run. - Thosar World Series odds: +4000Win total over/under: 82.5 Offseason recap: The Royals finished third in the AL Central and just above .500 at 82-80 in 2025, and so Kansas City focused on improving weaknesses in the outfield and bullpen; they spent just north of $7 million this winter to do it, inviting questions about their lineup depth. They acquired outfielders Isaac Collins , Starling Marte and Lane Thomas , as well as relievers Alex Lange, Nick Mears and Matt Strahm – is that going to be enough to get past a reloaded Tigers' rotation? That's why they play the games. X-factor: Ace Cole Ragans. After an All-Star and Cy-Young caliber 2024 season, a rotator cuff strain limited the southpaw to just 13 starts last season. Ragans is crucial to the success of the rotation and the team’s chances to contend this year; the Royals might need him to bounce back to elite form. Behind him, the rotation consists of Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Kris Bubic, a solid group with a high ceiling. Season prediction: Things would have to go sideways if the Royals don’t finish the season in at least second place or better. Outside of the Tigers, the rest of the division is weak. Kansas City should be able to lock down a bounce-back season and threaten Detroit for the division title. - Thosar World Series odds: +10000Win total over/under: 72.5 Offseason recap: You won’t find any splashy additions here. The Twins added roster depth this winter through free agency and trades, focusing on volume rather than impactful moves – that approach stands out for what it is not, given Minnesota went just 70-92 in 2025, finishing ahead of only the White Sox. The Twins' key additions included 33-year-old first baseman Josh Bell , the rare catcher who can hit a bit in Victor Caratini and left-handed reliever Taylor Rogers, who struggled with the Cubs after a midseason deal but thrived with the Reds before that. Their biggest loss was longtime baseball head Derek Falvey, who mutually parted ways with the organization before spring training. X-factor: Third baseman Royce Lewis is pivotal to the Twins’ potential success. Whenever he has started to show superstar potential, an injury has come knocking at the door. At least things are trending up: Lewis played 58 games in 2023, 82 games in ‘24 and 106 in ‘25. Lewis is facing a ton of pressure to stay healthy and perform like the No. 1 draft pick he was in 2017, but that trend has been going in the wrong direction the last few years. Season prediction: Minnesota didn’t really move the needle this winter. It made a bunch of moves to look active while not actually becoming stronger. Even so, they might be able to push for a wild card spot if everything goes as planned with their slightly-better-than-average rotation. - Thosar World Series odds: +8000Win total over/under: 75.5 Offseason recap: The Athletics weren't building on a 76-86 season this winter: this was a young team that played a much stronger – and above .500 – second half, and the offseason was designed around that idea. The A’s spent the winter betting that their young core that includes AL Rookie of the Year Nick Kurtz is real, and building carefully around it. They signed LF/1B Tyler Soderstrom to a seven-year, $86 million contract extension. They strategically traded for utilityman Jeff McNeil , and tried and failed to land perennial Gold Glover Nolan Arenado. They added righthanders Aaron Civale and Mark Leiter Jr. on one-year deals. They’re in position to improve on last year’s 76-win season, and maybe even a 35-29 second-half. - Thosar X-factor: Civale. The A’s pitching staff gave up the fourth-most runs in baseball last year. Their offense has the potential to be top-10 in the league, but their arms have to be better for that to even matter and for the dream of a winning season to seem realistic. If Civale, who’s coming off a 4.85-ERA season for three teams, can be a solid No. 3 starter behind Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs, the A’s are cooking. Season prediction: If the A’s can improve to above .500, they have a chance to surpass the Astros and Rangers for the second-best record in the AL West, giving them a shot to contend for the wild card in October. The fact that we’re even mentioning postseason baseball and the A’s in the same sentence is a win for a fan base that’s had to put up with a rebuild and an exit from Oakland in recent years. - Thosar World Series odds: +2500Win total over/under: 86.5 Offseason recap: The Astros missed the postseason for the first time since 2016 by winning just 87 games in 2025. With the departure of top arm Framber Valdez, the Astros focused most of their winter rebuilding the pitching staff, signing Japanese righty Tatsuya Imai to a three-year, $54 million deal, but Houston didn’t do anything to improve an offense that ranked 21st in runs scored last season, when they missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016, deferring to expecting full seasons from key midseason acquisitions like third baseman Carlos Correa to make up the difference, as well as multiple key injured players like shortstop Jeremy Pena and outfielder Yordan Alvarez, instead. X-factor: Alvarez. The Astros didn’t make meaningful outside additions to the offense because they're depending on the slugger to have a huge year at the plate. That can only be possible if Alvarez stays healthy: he was limited to just 48 games last year due to a fractured hand that cost him most of the summer, and then suffered a late-season ankle injury. From 2022-2024, Alvarez hit a combined .303/.401/.587 with 103 home runs – getting anything close to that back would be massive. Season prediction: Houston should be right there with the Rangers and Athletics, battling for second place in the AL West with the Mariners expected to win the division. In the end, this season will reveal whether the Astros have fully closed the window on their title contention, or if their strong rotation – and a healthier lineup – can still lead them to glory. - Thosar World Series odds: +25000Win total over/under: 70.5 Offseason recap: The Angels finished last in the AL West in 2025, going 72-90 to eventually fall behind a blossoming A's squad. Los Angeles prioritized pitching this winter, attempting to bolster a group that finished 28th in the majors with a 4.89 ERA last year. They added righthander Grayson Rodriguez in a trade with the Orioles, moving Taylor Ward and his 36 homers from 2025 to do it, and also brought on righties Alek Manoah , Jordan Romano and Kirby Yates , as well as lefties Drew Pomeranz and Brent Suter . X-factor: Rodriguez will be key to boosting Los Angeles’ weak rotation. After missing the entire 2025 season with injuries, Rodriguez is aiming to return to his 2024 form , which would be a real triumph for the Angels, even at the cost of Ward's prodigious power. He becomes a free agent in 2030, and they gave up just one year of team control from Ward to acquire Rodriguez – there are risks, but a healthy Rodriguez is exactly the kind of arm that the Angels need if they are to get out of the basement. Season prediction: I’ll go out on a limb here and say the Angels will extend the longest active playoff drought in the major leagues. They will also finish last in the AL West, where they’ve made a home. But all the new faces on the team should at least rejuvenate the roster. - Thosar World Series odds: +1200Win total over/under: 89.5 Offseason recap: About the only thing not to love about the Mariners' 2025 is that it ended just short of the team's first-ever World Series appearance. After their hard-fought battle against the AL champion Blue Jays in the ALCS, the Mariners, who won 90 regular-season games a year ago, responded by making the necessary move to re-sign midseason acquisition Josh Naylor, who hit .299/.341/.490 for Seattle, and lock down first base through 2030. The M’s also added infielder Brendan Donovan and outfielder Rob Refsynder while bolstering their bullpen depth. Their biggest departures this winter were infielders Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suarez, but for Suarez, at least, most of his best in-season work came with the Diamondbacks before Seattle traded for him. X-factor: Shortstop Colt Emerson. Seattle’s 20-year-old No. 1 overall prospect is considered one of the best pure hitters in the minors, with a smooth left-handed swing that has the potential to be extremely dangerous in the majors. Emerson is expected to make his big-league debut at some point this season, and even though J.P. Crawford is blocking him at shortstop, the M’s have roster flexibility at second and third to give him runway this year, which could ease the sting of losing Polanco and Suarez. Season prediction: The Mariners are positioned to win the division again and make a deep playoff run with a top-10 rotation in MLB. Even beyond their dominant arms, outfielder Julio Rodriguez is projected to produce an MVP-caliber season at age 25, and he's joined by Naylor as well as the top-hitting catcher in the game in Cal Raleigh. Seattle should be able to replicate last year’s 90-win season, or at least come close. -Thosar World Series odds: +3000Win total over/under: 83.5 Offseason recap: A .500 record in 2025 was a disappointment, but a seemingly unavoidable one given the Rangers' many injuries to key players. And it was also a bit of a last gasp for that core, as Texas' offseason was all about moving on from the 2023 world championship team. They traded shortstop Marcus Semien for outfielder Brandon Nimmo, who hit .262/.324/.436 for the Mets in 2025. They non-tendered outfielder Adolis Garcia and catcher Jonah Heim. They added lefty MacKenzie Gore and catcher Danny Jansen . They added righties Alexis Diaz and Jakob Junis and re-signed Chris Martin. That's a ton of roster turnover for new manager Skip Schumaker to sort through. X-factor: Wyatt Langford. The outfielder is entering his third season in the big leagues, and could be on the cusp of an MVP-caliber year after slashing .241/.344/.431 with 22 home runs and an OPS+ of 127. His production will be vital to the success the Rangers have this year, particularly with the lack of additions to the lineup – if Langford doesn't take the leap, that is likely to be a problem. Season prediction: The Rangers made some moves, but outside of Gore, none of them were really impactful enough to take a big forward this year after back-to-back disappointing seasons. The offense still doesn’t have enough thump, but the big three starters in Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom, and Gore should help Texas hold their own throughout the year. They could contend for a wild card spot. -Thosar World Series odds: +1800Win total over/under: 86.5 Offseason recap: The Braves 2025 started in a hole and ended there, too, with Atlanta finishing 76-86, fourth in the NL East. Depth was the idea for the offseason, is already paying off as the additions of outfielder Mike Yastrzemski and two-time Gold Glove infielder Mauricio Dubón look both prudent and vital after outfielder Jurickson Profar inexplicably failed another drug test and will miss the entire season, middle-infielder Ha-Seong Kim slipped on ice and slugger Marcell Ozuna departed in free agency. There weren’t many big splashes this winter to get this team back on track, but adding All-Star closer Robert Suarez as a free agent and bringing back Raisel Iglesias – who led the NL in games finished a year ago – should help a Braves bullpen that was a problem last year. Mostly, though, the team’s best talents need to play to their capabilities and stay on the field. X-factor: Outfielder Michael Harris II. His elite defense allows him to provide value regardless, but he’s so much more talented than the below-average offensive season he produced in 2025. The 2022 Rookie of the Year has now seen his OPS dip every year . But after entering the All-Star break with a .551 OPS last year, he got hot in July and August and looked more like the player the Braves envisioned. He was still a 20-20 player, but there’s so much untapped potential here with some better swing decisions. Season prediction: The injury bug is already biting again. Pitchers Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep underwent elbow procedures. Kim, who was brought back to be the club’s primary shortstop, needed hand surgery. Then came the Profar news, and now starting pitcher Spencer Strider has an oblique injury. So it goes lately for the seemingly-cursed club. There’s still enough talent in place to envision a quick bounce back from last year’s calamity, though, even if it happens with Atlanta making a late push to sneak into the playoffs as a wild-card team. - Rowan Kavner World Series odds: +20000Win total over/under: 72.5 Offseason recap: The Marlins finished under .500 in 2025, third in the NL East at 79-83 – right at that sweet spot where truly competing is just a few moves away. While Miami brought in Pete Fairbanks to solidify the closer role – the 6-foot-6 righty had a 2.83 ERA in 60.1 innings for the Rays in 2025 – it was a bit disappointing that the Marlins didn’t do more this winter after playing much better last summer than anyone anticipated. Instead, they continued looking toward the future by trading away talented starting pitchers Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers. The moves are rational considering the number of arms in Miami’s system, and the Cabrera trade did land them a prospect who can help quickly in 23-year-old outfielder Owen Caissie , but don’t do much to improve the 2026 outlook. Perhaps Miami realized last year’s 79-win season was a bit of a red herring. X-factor: Eury Pérez. The former top prospect returned from Tommy John surgery last year and now will be one of the most intriguing arms to watch in all of MLB. The 22-year-old didn’t lose any velocity from his high-90s fastball coming back from the injury last year, and his tantalizing arsenal gives him the upside to be one of the best pitchers in the sport. Season prediction: The outfield could be fun to watch with Caissie breaking in alongside 2025 standouts Kyle Stowers and Jakob Marsee, but the Marlins are still probably at least a year away from contending for a playoff spot given their limited offseason moves. Even matching their 79-win total from last year feels optimistic. If things turn south, it’ll be interesting to see where Sandy Alcántara is pitching in the second half. - Kavner World Series odds: +1300Win total over/under: 90.5 Offseason recap: It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. After the Mets moved on from cornerstone pieces in first baseman Pete Alonso, closer Edwin Díaz and outfielder Brandon Nimmo early in the winter following a disappointing 83-win, second-place and playoff-less 2025 season, things were looking bleak in Queens. Then president of baseball operations David Stearns got in his bag, trading for Brewers' ace Freddy Peralta and White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr. while signing two-time All-Star Bo Bichette. Jorge Polanco , Marcus Semien , Devin Williams and Luke Weaver are also among the many additions forming a completely new-look group following last year’s disappointing finish. X-factor: Luis Robert Jr. You could very well put top position player prospect Carson Benge here , too, considering he should be a major factor in the Mets’ outfield as well. But Robert, who was a 5.3-WAR player at 25 years old in 2023, has already demonstrated what he can do when he plays to his abilities. Will he tap back into that form playing for a better team, or will this year be a continuation of his last two years with the White Sox, when he regressed into a below-average hitter? I think the change of scenery will bring out a better version of the former All-Star. Season prediction: With so many new pieces, it might take some time for this group to start clicking on all cylinders. But I think a shake-up was necessary, and this looks like a more complete team in 2026 with Freddy Peralta and top prospect Nolan McLean headlining the rotation. Expect a return to the postseason, and this group will win the division for the first time since 2015 in what should be a tight battle with the Phillies and Braves to the finish line. - Kavner World Series odds: +1600Win total over/under: 89.5 Offseason recap: The Phillies could’ve blown up their nucleus following a heartbreaking defeat in the NLDS. For better or worse, the 96-win Phils will return a similar group in 2026 after bringing back designated hitter and power-hitting savant Kyle Schwarber and catcher J.T. Realmuto, thanks to missing on their swing for Bo Bichette in free agency. They’ll no longer have Ranger Suárez in the rotation, but the door is now open for top pitching prospect Andrew Painter, a 6-foot-7 righthander who struggled with the long ball in Triple-A but remains loaded with potential. The biggest difference will be in the outfield, where 22-year-old rookie Justin Crawford and veteran Adolis García are expected to step in for Harrison Bader and Nick Castellanos – the latter had an OPS of just .694 in 2025 and struggled defensively, giving Philly some cushion there. X-factor: Andrew Painter. Suárez is gone. We don’t yet know what ace Zack Wheeler will look like upon his return from thoracic outlet surgery, though he is on track to be back early in the season. Aaron Nola is coming off a year in which he produced a 6.01 ERA . Jesús Luzardo provides some stability to the rotation, but Painter bouncing back from an uninspiring 2025 campaign in the minors would go a long way toward helping Philadelphia win a third-straight division title. Season prediction: Last year didn’t have the logjam at the top of the NL East that many expected, as the Phillies ended up running away with the division by 13 games. Don’t expect that to happen again. The Phillies still have the pieces to win the NL East, but I don’t think they’ll be better than they were in 2025. With the Mets and Braves both expected to bounce back, that might mean making the playoffs as a wild-card team. - Kavner World Series odds: +50000Win total over/under: 65.5 Offseason recap: The Nationals lost 96 games in 2025 and finished in last place in the NL East, and followed that up with some significant changes. The youth movement in Washington carried over to the front office, with new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni , general manager Anirudh Kilambi and manager Blake Butera taking the reins and introducing a more modernized operation to a system that appeared behind the times. The trade of All-Star starter MacKenzie Gore to the Texas Rangers signaled the rebuild ahead; it might be a very long season in D.C. X-factor: Starter Cade Cavalli. Injuries have limited the 2020 first-round pick to just 11 career big-league starts, but he possesses a high-90s fastball and has looked almost unhittable this spring. This team desperately needs young arms to build around, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the new regime help get the most out of the 27-year-old. Season prediction: Maybe the new front office revamps the pitching development in a meaningful way, but the overhaul is going to take years. For now, the Nationals might have the worst pitching staff in baseball. Even if outfielder James Wood goes berserk and builds on his impressive first full year in the bigs , a last-place finish is likely ahead. The Nationals could challenge the Rockies for the worst record in the NL. - Kavner World Series odds: +1800Win total over/under: 88.5 Offseason recap: Out with one All-Star and in with another. Outfielder Kyle Tucker’s Cubs tenure lasted just one year, as the team moved on from the top free agent and instead paid up for the leadership of third baseman Alex Bregman after Tucker helped them to 92 wins and a wild-card berth. Bregman, in his own one-season stint on the Red Sox, hit .273/.360/.462 in 114 games and made an All-Star team; he'll fit right into the Cubs' lineup. Chicago also found the impact arm they were searching for by trading for starting pitcher Edward Cabrera from Miami and remade the bullpen in an attempt to finally overtake the Brewers and win the division for the first time since the shortened 2020 season. X-factor: Cabrera. He was brought in to be a difference-making arm in the rotation, but his success has fluctuated — 4.24 ERA in 2023, 4.95 in 2024, 3.53 in 2025 — and he has struggled to stay on the field. Last year was the first time he pitched 100 innings in a season, and he was still limited by an elbow issue. But his high-90s fastball and swing-and-miss stuff give him a high ceiling if he can build on the better command he demonstrated last year. Season prediction: Losing Tucker hurts the offense, but this is the deepest team in the division. Even if the Cubs win roughly the same number of games as they did last season, that could be enough to win the NL Central. I expect that to happen, especially if the first-half version of budding star outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong shows back up and lefty Justin Steele provides a summer boost. - Kavner World Series odds: +5500Win total over/under: 80.5 Offseason recap: The Reds went 83-79 to finish third in the NL Central and with a wild card spot, but well behind the top two in the Brewers and Cubs. While 2026 brings promise of narrowing that gap, right-handed starter Hunter Greene’s elbow injury is an ominous start to the year for a team that will need to rely on its rotation to build on last year’s playoff appearance. Third baseman Eugenio Suárez isn’t Kyle Schwarber — Cincinnati’s attempt to lure in the Ohio native fell short — but the addition of the 49-homer slugger gives the Reds some needed power in a lineup that lacked it last season. Suarez's 2025 understandably gets the attention, but he has averaged 3.3 wins above replacement per year since 2022 – just one Reds player was better than that in 2025. X-factor: Starting pitcher Chase Burns. It was a small sample, but the 2024 No. 2 overall pick debuted last year and showcased his elite swing-and-miss stuff, striking out 67 batters in 43.1 innings in a hybrid role. Only six pitchers had a higher strikeout rate in at least 40 innings last season. Now, the hard-throwing righty gets a chance to begin the year in the rotation with Greene injured. Season prediction: Last year, the Reds unexpectedly snuck into the postseason despite finishing in third place in the NL Central. The Suárez addition should help, but unless De La Cruz progresses into an MVP candidate, infielder Sal Stewart plays like the Rookie of the Year and hot-and-cold second baseman Matt McLain gets back on track, I don’t think that move was enough on the offensive side to expect more than another third-place finish. - Kavner World Series odds: +3500Win total over/under: 84.5 Offseason recap: Anyone hoping that the Brewers’ success last year would change the way they operate will be sorely disappointed. With 97 victories, they won more games than any team in MLB while also setting a franchise record, but still got swept by a more talented Dodgers team in the NLCS. And instead of trying to bring in a star to help get them over the top in October, they traded away ace Freddy Peralta and pitcher Tobias Myers to the Mets, infielder Caleb Durbin to the Red Sox and outfielder Isaac Collins to the Royals for cost-controlled players and prospects. They did, however, bring back Brandon Woodruff on the qualifying offer and signed infielder Luis Rengifo from the Angels to help address Durbin’s departure. X-factor: First baseman Andrew Vaughn. Count on the Brewers to get the most from another team’s discards. Things never materialized for Vaughn in Chicago after the White Sox made him the No. 3 overall pick in 2019, but he looked rejuvenated in the second half after a trade to the Brewers, slashing .308/.375/.493 in 64 games and playing a major role in Milwaukee’s overall offensive uptick after the break. Now, with Rhys Hoskins in Cleveland, can we expect more of the same from Vaughn in a larger sample? The underlying numbers, at least, were encouraging. Season prediction: Every year, we doubt them. Every year, they prove us wrong. But they can’t keep getting away with this, right? I expect their pitching will be good enough to make the playoffs, but this time only as a wild-card team. - Kavner World Series odds: +6500Win total over/under: 78.5 Offseason recap: Finally, some offensive help! After years… and years… and years… of offensive ineptitude, the Pirates traded for second baseman Brandon Lowe and young outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia , and signed first baseman Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna in an attempt to field a more competitive lineup and get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Given the Pirates went 71-91 and finished in last place in the NL Central even with Cy Young winner Paul Skenes in the fold, all that offense was more than necessary. X-factor: Konnor Griffin. Beyond the help that Pittsburgh got on the free-agent market, the Pirates’ biggest boost to the lineup might come internally. They have the top prospect in baseball in Griffin, a 19-year-old shortstop who looks like a potential superstar and 2026 difference-maker. Griffin hit 23 homers and stole 65 bases in the minors last year. Season prediction: When you have the worst offense in baseball, there’s only one direction to go. There are questions about the defensive fits with the pieces they added, and they had to trade away depth in the rotation to bring more power to the lineup. But the offense should at least be better, and they did more than they had in recent years to try to get Paul Skenes to the playoffs. I think it’s still unlikely it will happen, but Pirates fans at least have a reason to dream now. - Kavner World Series odds: +30000Win total over/under: 69.5 Offseason recap: The 78-84 Cardinals managed to finish above the Pirates in the NL Central in 2025, but that might also be their best finish for a bit. There were no half measures for St. Louis this offseason; the rebuild is fully in hyperdrive after new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom traded away pitcher Sonny Gray, first baseman Willson Contreras, third baseman Nolan Arenado and utility Brendan Donovan to inject more young arms into a farm system that needed an overhaul. This year is all about developing those talents. X-factor: Infielder JJ Wetherholt. As the Cardinals figure out which young pieces could be part of the next great Cardinals team, everyone is anticipating the arrival of the 2024 No. 7 overall pick. Wetherholt, one of the top prospects in baseball, hit .306 with 17 homers and 23 stolen bases last year between Double-A and Triple-A and should soon make for a dynamic middle infield pairing with the still-just-24-years-old Masyn Winn in St. Louis. Season prediction: It’s going to get worse before it gets better in the win column for St. Louis, but that’s the right path forward as Bloom thinks toward the future. The Cardinals will probably finish last in the Central, so this year will be mostly about getting the young players in the lineup to take a leap forward and figuring out who should be part of the plans in 2027 and beyond. - Kavner World Series odds: +7000Win total over/under: 79.5 Offseason recap: The 2025 season was an odd one for the Diamondbacks, as they traded away first baseman Josh Naylor, the power-hitting Eugenio Suarez and starting pitcher Merrill Kelly before the trade deadline and then nearly rallied for a wild card, anyway – Arizona would finish 80-82, however, in fourth in the NL West but still 37 games up on the Rockies. The Diamondbacks entered the offseason having to replace Zac Gallen and Kelly in their starting rotation, as Gallen became a free agent on top of Kelly's early exit. They did so by … well, bringing back Gallen and Kelly. The former will be trying to re-establish his value before hitting free agency again next year, while Kelly is likely to open the season on the injured list with a back issue. The offense added a couple veterans on the corners in third baseman Nolan Arenado and Carlos Santana at first. X-factor: Starter Corbin Burnes. The D-backs ranked fifth in OPS last season and should have no problems scoring runs again in 2026 even without Naylor and Suarez, as All-Star outfielder Corbin Carroll and electric second baseman Ketel Marte remain, as does shortstop Geraldo Perdomo, who finished fourth-place in MVP voting and has a lot of buzz coming into the season. The question is still whether the arms are good enough to get back to the playoffs for the first time since their run to the World Series in 2023. If the D-backs can stay in contention in the first half, they could get a significant boost for the second-half push when Burnes returns from Tommy John rehab. Season prediction: Maybe the offensive upside makes up for the pitching concerns, but right now this looks like a team that will hover around .500 again and fall just short of a playoff spot. If that’s the case, the trade deadline should be interesting. Last July, the D-backs decided to sell and offloaded Naylor and Suárez to Seattle. If there’s another middling start, could Marte be the next big name to move after being subject to trade rumors this winter? - Kavner World Series odds: +50000Win total over/under: 54.5 Offseason recap: Coming off a 43-win season, there’s only one direction to go. It’s out with the old and in with the… slightly vintage? Paul DePodesta of 'Moneyball' fame is back in MLB after a decade in the NFL, taking over as the president of baseball operations, with former Dodgers senior vice president of baseball operations Josh Byrnes in as the new general manager. The Rockies made some moves for veteran players to construct a more competitive roster – outfielder Jake McCarthy, third baseman Willi Castro, first baseman TJ Rumfeld, second baseman Edouard Julien – but the regime change is the biggest difference moving forward, as it's hard to get excited about names like McCarthy, Castro, Rumfeld, and Julien. X-factor: Starter Chase Dollander. In a rotation full of 30-somethings, the growth of the 24-year-old 2023 first-round pick will be crucial. The Rockies need a young arm to get excited about and build around, and while Dollander hasn’t put it together at the big-league level yet, he has the stuff — including a fastball that sits in the high-90s — that a new front office might be able to harness. Season prediction: Colorado isn’t close to competing for anything coming off one of the worst seasons in modern baseball history, so this year is just about taking strides toward competency. After years of the team appearing to operate in a different reality, this will be much more than a year-long project for DePodesta and Byrnes. - Kavner World Series odds: +230Win total over/under: 102.5 Offseason recap: Best of luck to the 29 other fanbases. The best team in baseball signed the best player and closer on the market, addressing its two biggest areas of concern and further calling into question the sport’s competitive balance and payroll disparities. Those aren’t problems the Dodgers are concerning themselves with, though. The back-to-back champs are the clear favorites to three-peat, something that hasn’t been done since the 1998-00 Yankees. X-factor: Roki Sasaki. Is he a starter? Is he a reliever? Will he perfect a reliable third pitch? Will he be a bullpen weapon again in October? Will he even stay in the big leagues? Or will inconsistent mechanics make him an afterthought for most of the year again? For a player with so much intrigue and ability, and one who provided such a lift last postseason, there’s still a lot of unknowns regarding how much Sasaki will help the Dodgers in 2026. An ERA over 13.00 this spring wasn’t promising, but the Dodgers seem intent on giving him a chance to work out his issues in the MLB rotation to begin the year. If he can’t, expect prospect River Ryan to get his chance. Season prediction: Last year, the Dodgers treated the regular season like extended spring training. A team that many expected to win 100, 110 or 120 games instead won 93, its fewest in a full season since 2018… and still won the World Series. With that in mind, as talented as this group is, it’s probably more likely to temper the expectations from a wins perspective. A three-peat is all the Dodgers care about, and they’ll do whatever they can to make sure their best players are the freshest they can be for the postseason. That said, it’s unlikely any division rival challenges their NL West supremacy. - Kavner World Series odds: +3500Win total over/under: 83.5 Offseason recap: The Padres won 90 games in 2025 and finished second in the NL West with a wild-card spot, but manager Mike Shildt decided to retire from the role all the same at the end of the season. Like other teams around the league, the Padres went an unconventional route picking their new manager. Former Padres reliever Craig Stammen went from interviewing candidates for the head job to being the answer after Shildt’s sudden retirement. Now, Stammen will try to get a Padres team that has made the playoffs three of the last four seasons over the hump. The Padres brought back top starter Michael King and, after a particularly quiet winter for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, took some fliers late in the winter to fill out the roster as the team explored a sale. X-factor: Outfielder Jackson Merrill. In 2024, Merrill demonstrated the value he can bring to a team with a dynamic rookie season that would’ve resulted in a Rookie of the Year Award if not for Paul Skenes. Last year, a medley of injuries that limited him to 115 games prevented him from providing that same production. For the Padres to get where they hope to go, they need Merrill to take a leap forward, which he is fully capable of doing. Season prediction: This year has major boom or bust potential. Any team with Merrill, star outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. and third baseman Manny Machado has a chance. But considering the lack of depth around that trio, there’s also the potential for combustion if one of the stars doesn’t stay healthy. The bullpen still has a chance to be the best in baseball, and this could still very well be the second-best team in the division. But the rotation could be an issue, and they’ll probably need more A.J. Preller deadline magic to have hopes of playing in October. — Kavner World Series odds: +6000Win total over/under: 82.5 Offseason recap: The Giants finished just 81-81 despite the midseason addition of slugging third baseman Rafael Devers from Boston after a still-shocking divorce from the Red Sox, as that was not enough to fix San Francisco's problems all at once. However, president Buster Posey made his biggest splash of the winter in the manager’s seat rather than the roster. Tony Vitello is making the unprecedented move directly from college coaching, where he helped establish the Tennessee Volunteers as a national powerhouse, to the big leagues. The Giants filled out the roster with mostly complementary pieces. Pure contact hitter Luis Arraez will get another chance at second base, Harrison Bader should be a major boost defensively in the outfield coming over from Philadelphia, and live arms Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser add depth to the rotation. X-factor: Devers. Last year was a turbulent season for the long-time Boston third baseman, resulting in his move from the Red Sox to the Giants, where he is now more willing to play first. Wherever he is defensively, the Giants made the move — which takes him through 2033 — to get his bat in the lineup in a place where it’s not easy to hit. The Giants haven’t made the playoffs since their improbable 107-win season in 2021. If that’s going to change this year, Devers has to be one of the best hitters in the sport. Season prediction: Posey’s move to bring on Vitello carries significant risk. But even if his ability to motivate college players carries over to the pros, the bigger question is whether this roster is good enough to meaningfully change the mediocrity of the last four seasons. The Giants should contend for one of the final wild-card spots, and I think they have the best chance of any non-Dodgers NL West club to make the playoffs, but it’s hard to envision much more than that as currently constructed. — Kavner
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