The Phillies have caught lightning in a bottle.
Bryce Harper is mashing the ball, Trea Turner has rediscovered his stroke, although he was placed on paternity leave for today’s game, and the team boasts the best offense in baseball over the past month .
They were 19-12 since Aug. 1, entering Tuesday, and had built a 5.5-game cushion in the NL wild-card race.The red-hot Phils square off against the Padres and starting pitcher Michael Wacha on Wednesday. Wacha’s 2.85 ERA makes him look like a formidable opponent, but his 4.30 expected ERA shows he’s vastly overvalued.Wacha relies on a changeup to induce soft contact and lazy flies. Unfortunately for him, the Phillies crush changeups, boasting the seventh-highest expected wOBA against the pitch .
Meanwhile, Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler is vastly undervalued. His 3.62 ERA is a half-run higher than his 3.14 expected ERA. However, Wheeler has seen some positive regression, pitching to a 2.73 ERA over his past eight starts. Bet on him and the red-hot Phillies, especially against an underwhelming Padres unit led by an overvalued Wacha.
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