Attacks on oil shipping could raise prices—and certainly insurance rates—but the damage to the industry and the economy will be limited short of a major outbreak of violence
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This is hardly a new experience: the 1980s saw a lengthy ‘tanker war’ as a subset of the Iran-Iraq War, with attacks on oil tankers by both sides, as they sought to deny each other access to world oil markets. What is not remembered is that the attacks were largely ineffective , the primary result being higher insurance rates for shippers. The fact that there was an enormous spare crude oil production capacity around the world was an important offsetting factor which is not the case presently.
As an added bonus, crude oil burns and gasoline explodes, so that a small effort can yield a really spectacular result; soaring flames and thick smoke make for a great visual, even if the actual damage is minimal, which is often the case. Colombian rebels attacked oil pipelines hundreds of times, disrupting production somewhat but hardly shutting down the industry.
The industry does have a number of points of vulnerability, but these are also heavily protected. The Straits of Hormuz are a major chokepoint, making them an attractive target for those wishing to disrupt oil trade, but there is an enormous amount of military hardware focused on them. Damaging one or more tankers is obviously easy, but shutting down shipping would be nearly impossible.
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