Foreign diplomats are still feeling burned after assuming Donald Trump would lose in 2016 — and they don’t want to be fooled again.
So many of them are quietly predicting and preparing for a Trump victory in 2020. Some are even trying to game out who will be on the president’s team in a second term. The belief that Trump will win re-election — gleaned from conversations with around 20 foreign diplomats, international officials and analysts who deal with them — appears widespread.“In 2016, nobody believed he was going to be elected.
By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time.An Asian ambassador said that every embassy in Washington is working “on the basis that the president has more than an even chance at being reelected.” But he, like others, said the embassies had to prepare for either possibility.
On U.S. military involvement overseas, for instance, some Democratic candidates for president are showing isolationist impulses like Trump. And Trump’s desire for more “fair” trade deals isn’t too different from the views of challengers like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.“He’s not an isolated phenomenon,” a European diplomat said. “In his campaign and his presidency, he’s just responding to what the American public feels.
Hungary and Poland have good ties with Trump, who critics say has been willing to look past anti-democratic developments in both countries. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has similarly flaunted his relationship with Trump, whose favors have included recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. The U.S. president has also showered praise and arms sales on Saudi Arabia, despite bipartisan outcry over the country’s killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Then there’s Russia, whom U.S. intelligence agencies say interfered in the 2016 election to help Trump. Trump has tried to be friendly to Russian leader Vladimir Putin, but he also has imposed a bevy of sanctions on Moscow, so his presidency has been a bit of a toss-up for Putin.Trump made history by meeting face-to-face with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, part of an effort to strike a nuclear deal with the country.
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