The United States’ abrupt withdrawal from northeastern Syria is forcing the Pentagon to accept a dangerous reality — the rebirth of an Islamic State sanctuary
that could allow terrorists to launch attacks on the West.
“There’s a direct relationship between presence on the ground and understanding the potential danger,” he said. “The unknown will be the capability and intent of the Islamic State in northeastern Syria to conduct external operations. Our ability to understand that has just been dramatically reduced.”
The Pentagon’s primary strategy for preventing an ISIS resurgence has been to work “by, with and through” the Syrian Democratic Forces, consisting of Kurdish militias and smaller Arab, Assyrian and Turkmen forces. U.S. special operations troops embedded with those forces on the ground relied on their local knowledge to garner intelligence and keep most U.S. troops out of direct combat.
“By, with and through is how we do business, and my concern is that [U.S. troops’] moment-to-moment presence is what created the ability of the SDF to deal with emergent ISIS elements,” said John Allen, a retired Marine general who was previously the Obama administration’s special envoy for the coalition against ISIS.
The desert base is also small and austere. “You’d have to build that place up quite a bit to make it a viable counterterrorism platform,” said a current special operations officer with experience in Syria, adding that expanding al-Tanf might raise the hackles of the Syrian regime. The military "could do them, but only episodically and at very high risk. It would be occasional mowing of the grass,” Nagata added of the raid option. “When we do raids in places like ISIS-controlled territory in Syria, there’s no friendly forces anywhere nearby. There’s no friendly outpost to run to if a helicopter goes down. You are fighting your way in and you’re fighting your way out.”
That may not be the case in Syria. The U.S. and Russia have long flown on opposite sides of a “de-confliction line” in Syria. Russian planes have been operating mostly in the west of the country supporting the Syrian government forces in the country's civil war, while U.S. aircraft operated in the east against ISIS targets.Sign up for Morning Defense, a daily briefing on Washington’s national security apparatus.By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO.
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