Nationally, high school graduates are expected to decline by 13% from 2023 to 2041, with Pennsylvania's declining at a faster rate and New Jersey barely declining.
Cabrini University shut its doors for good in June following financial struggles and enrollment declines. More area colleges are likely to face pressure and increased competition as the number of available high school graduates declines, with one of the steepest drops in the Northeast.Pennsylvania colleges have had a tough time competing for a shrinking pool of high school graduates in recent years, and new data show it’s going to get tougher.
Nationally, 38 states are expected to record declines by 2041, including all nine states in the Northeast, with Pennsylvania’s percentage drop the second-steepest in the region, behind New York at 27%. The Northeast’s drop, which is projected to hit 17% by 2041, has become even more pronounced than it was in the commission’s lastand enrollment declines and turning to mergers, closures, buyouts, and layoffs. But commission officials say it doesn’t have to be that way.
“States and institutions have time right now to build on approaches that will work in their contexts to meet current and future workforce needs,” she said.The projections are no surprise for colleges, which have known for years that an enrollment cliff was coming, beginning in 2026.
The commission highlighted some of the same issues in its recommendations. States, businesses, and colleges should focus on state and federal aid to improve college affordability, reach out to adult learners who have some college but haven’t finished their degree, and increase high school advising to better prepare students for “emerging” or high-demand jobs, the group said.
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