What the analytics predict for Penn State vs. Kent State in this Week 4 college football game.
One of college football's worst-producing teams goes on the road into Big Ten Country as Kent State faces off against No. 10 Penn State in the NCAA's Week 4 football action on Saturday. Penn State is 2-0 and coming off an idle week, but played close at home for most of its 34-27 victory against Bowling Green, another MAC challenger that put up 375 total yards in that game.
Kent State isn't expected to be as much of a challenge, at 0-3 overall and coming off a 71-0 loss at Tennessee last week, ranking 123rd in passing, 132nd in rushing, 127th in scoring offense, and dead-last nationally in scoring defense, allowing almost 50 points per game.For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview for how Penn State and Kent State compare in this Week 4 college football game.As expected, the simulations strongly favor the Nittany Lions to dominate at home. SP+ predicts that Penn State will defeat Kent State by a projected score of 50 to 0 and to win the game by an expected 49.8 points.SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.” How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a 52.4 win percentage.Penn State is a 48.5 point favorite against Kent State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 56.5 points for the game.That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.That leaves Kent State as the expected winner in the remaining 1 percent of sims. The model predicts that Penn State will be 50.4 points better than Kent State on the same field, enough to cover this spread. Penn State will win 9.8 games this season and sits third among Big Ten teams with a 47 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI's metrics. That model gives Kent State a 0.1 percent chance to become bowl eligible and projects the team will win just 1.3 games this season.James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.
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