Home sales this year are expected to total 4.15 million, the lowest annual count since 2008, according to a trade group.
A leading indicator of future home closings unexpectedly increased in September. Higher mortgage rates have weighed on sales of previously owned homes through much of 2023—but brighter days are ahead, according to one industry trade group.
This gauge can be a litmus test for existing-home sales in coming months—with limitations. Homes are recorded as a pending sale when they go under contract, something that happens month or two before the closing date. A home sale only is reflected in the trade group’s more detailed existing-home sales report after it closes.
“Despite the slight gain, pending contracts remain at historically low levels due to the highest mortgage rates in 20 years,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said in a statement. “Furthermore, inventory remains tight, which hinders sales but keeps home prices elevated.” But the slump is nearing its end, the trade group’s forecast suggests. They expect the quarterly seasonally adjusted annual existing-home sales rate to bottom at 4.01 million in the fourth quarter of this year before gaining sequentially in 2024.
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