There is good reason to believe this year’s Open field may get the best of Pebble Beach
NOWHERE BEATS Augusta National for tradition, but by common consent America’s most beautiful golf course is Pebble Beach Golf Links. Hugging the Pacific Ocean cliffs just south of Monterey, California, the stunning property is regularly voted the country’s best public course. It has also been the site of many of the sport’s most memorable moments, including Tom Watson’s famousNine years after the U.S.
is the hardest hole, relative to a typical hole of its distance and par value, measured at any major this millennium. According to EAGLE,’s statistical golf-forecasting system, par-fives around 580 yards long typically took around 4.82 strokes to complete in majors in 2010, the last time the US Open was held there. The unfortunate souls who had to navigate Pebble Beach’s 580-yard par-five that year averaged 5.44.
There is good reason to believe this year’s Open field may get the best of Pebble. Overall, by EAGLE’s reckoning, the average golfer in a major today is about a full stroke per round better than they were a decade ago. Since the configuration of Pebble Beach has barely changed since the 2010 Open, that suggests finishing scores for players making the cut should wind up about four strokes lower.
Nonetheless, EAGLE’s favourites for the US Open are mostly familiar faces, many of whom wield potent drivers. In the model’s estimation Mr Johnson remains the world’s best player, as he has been for nearly two years, and is the front-runner, with an 8% chance of victory. Thanks to a new adjustment that
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