PCE Preview: Will Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Tick Lower Tomorrow?

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Tomorrow’s update on US inflation for April looks set to tick lower, although the odds aren’t trivial that pricing pressure will remain sticky, according to various forecasts and a review of pricing trends published to date. Disinflation is still intact, based on the numbers in hand, but the report scheduled for Friday, May 31, will probably show limited progress on taming inflation. is projected to tick down to 0.2%, according to Econoday.com.

Tomorrow’s PCE inflation data will probably reaffirm her outlook. Nonetheless, a review of several inflation metrics still implies that the disinflation trend will roll on, albeit slowly and in fits and starts. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic offers a ray of hope for the doves. Speaking at a conference yesterday , he advised that several inflation metrics are still moving toward the central bank’s target range and that a rate cut is still a possibility at some point in this year’s fourth quarter.

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