Pres. Trump retains support from 90% of registered voters who say they voted for him in 2016, but loses 8% of them to Joe Biden. Biden, meanwhile, wins 95% of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 supporters, with 3% going to Trump.
pandemic has soared since March in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, boosting Biden – along with other measures – in the race for the White House.
– down 9 points in the course of the pandemic, with disapproval up 11. Trump remains the first president in modern polling never to achieve majority approval for his work in office, with the lowest career average on record. Sixty-one percent say Trump has done more to divide than to unite the country, more than said so about either of his two predecessors in office. When asked which candidates would do more to unite Americans, Biden leads by another wide margin, 57-33%.
Trump's retreat since the early days of the coronavirus outbreak has been largest in one of his core groups, rural Americans, with his lead among registered voters in this group shrinking from 47 points in late March to 18 points now, 56-38%. As noted Friday, his rating for handling the pandemic also has fallen especially sharply in rural areas.
Biden holds a 30-point lead among college graduates, 63-33%, vs. +15 points in late March. And Trump has gone from an 18-point lead among white registered voters to a scant 4 points now, while 94% of Black registered voters support Biden. Indeed, in a statistical analysis called regression, being worried about catching the coronavirus is a significant independent predictor of vote preference, controlling for other factors including partisanship, ideology and demographics.Eighty-six percent of registered voters say they’re certain to cast a ballot in the November election, somewhat higher than typical at this point in recent cycles – it was 79 to 81% in July 2016, 2012 and 2008 alike.
Partisanship divides these views. Among Biden supporters, just 28% see mail-in voting as vulnerable to substantial fraud, and 54% say it’s how they prefer to vote. Among Trump supporters, by contrast, 78% see mail-in voting as vulnerable, and only 17% prefer to vote that way.
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