Palantir Stock: How High Is Too High?

Palantir Stock News

Palantir Stock: How High Is Too High?
PalantirTech StockBeth Kindig
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Beth Kindig is the CEO and Lead Tech Analyst for the I/O Fund and delivers weekly in-depth tech stock analysis to her free newsletter subscribers. Sign up here to receive free weekly stock tips. I/O Fund has a cumulative return of 131% since our inception in May 2020, beating Ark and the majority of Wall Street funds.

is “one of the rare few that sees AI drive both real returns for its business and real value for its customers,” while it continues to crush its software peers in AI-related growth. AI offerings have driven a clear acceleration in customers and overall revenue, while many SaaS peers, such as MongoDB and Salesforce, struggle to say the same.

AIP has been the primary driving force of this revenue reacceleration, with strong adoption in the US commercial segment. AIP’s scalability, interoperability and versatility allow it to quickly be integrated by enterprises. Commercial customers can lever Palantir’s AI and machine learning tools to harness the power of the latest large language models within Foundry and Gotham for near-instant analytics & insights, and productivity & efficiency gains.

US commercial customer growth remained strong, with customers rising 77% YoY to 321 in Q3. This decelerated from 83% YoY in Q2. Here’s what the US commercial customer growth looks like:US commercial customer count has essentially doubled since AIP’s release, but Q3 was the second quarter to show slightly slower customer growth, indicating that Palantir may be relying on existing customers to drive revenue, whereas customer acquisition should be monitored moving forward.

This has been predominantly driven by the US, as international commercial has yet to scale. In the US, net new commercial customers have dropped over the past two quarters, falling from 41 net new adds in Q1 to 26 net new adds in Q3. There is a clear deceleration from peak customer acquisition following AIP’s ramp, where net new adds surged from 6 in Q2 2023 to 41 by Q1, before slowing again.

Cash flow margins were bonkers in Q3 — operating cash flow was nearly $420 million, or a 58% margin, while adjusted free cash flow was $435 million, a 60% margin. This was a large step up from cash flow margins in the low-20% range in the first half of 2024.

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