What could it expect from TV networks without the L.A. schools? We crunched the numbers.
The number was there for all to see, displayed in red type on a large screen for the University of California Board of Regents as they gathered Wednesday to discuss UCLA’s entry into the Big Ten:According to no less an authority than the UC Office of the President, $9.8 million was the projected hit to the Pac-12’s annual media rights revenue resulting from USC’s accompanying departure in the summer of 2024.
What could the Pac-12 reasonably expect from its media partners in the next contract cycle without either Los Angeles school?Over the past two weeks, the Hotline has attempted to gain deeper insight into the all-important valuation equation. In order to make the material easier to digest, we will refer to them simply as sources A, B, C and D.
But there is a brand value attached to USC football that’s more difficult to measure. Does that brand value push USC’s total worth all the way to 30 percent? Filter for just the 2021 season, and the data is even more intriguing: The 28 Pac-12 games broadcast by Fox and ESPN/ABC without either Los Angeles school averaged more viewers than the games with the L.A. schools.
“I’d say $70 million to $75 million is about right,” source C said, “because you have to weigh losing both market and brand value.”The most significant development at the UC Regents’ meeting on Wednesday was a clear indication from general counsel Charlie Robinson that the boardThat seems unlikely given potential financial ramifications and the dangerous precedent it would set for future UC campus business. But clearly, the likelihood of a reversal by UCLA is not zero.
In other words, our hypothetical assignment of $100 million to the Pac-12 with both L.A. schools would drop to $85 million if the Bruins were retained but the Trojans departed. However, the conference could have a competition problem. ESPN appears likely to bid on the media rights, but without a second network to drive up the price, the Pac-12 could be forced to accept less than $350 million.How might the Pac-12 push its average valuation into the mid-$300 millions?