Experts at Saxo bank detail their ‘outrageous’ predictions for 2023, as 2022 delivers us straight into a global war economy.
Continuing almost two decades of tradition, experts at the bank have made the predictions as ‘consensus-smashing forecasts’ that would ‘send shockwaves through the markets’ – but only if they come to pass.were scarily on the mark – though not exactly for the reasons the analysts jotted down.
The bank’s experts also saw the green energy rush stumbling and being pushed out further. In many respects, this did happen – but again, not for the reasons predicted. The Russian war put Europe into an energy crisis that saw key economies return to fossil fuels like coal for energy production. Some predictions didn’t quite land. The experts expected upheaval and chaos in the US mid-terms – but this ended up with a more-of-the-same outcome and, actually, a few key wins for the Democrats, despite a surge in right populist rhetoric from the Republicans.
In 2023, owners of major technology companies and other technophile billionaires grow impatient with the lack of progress in developing the necessary energy infrastructure that would allow them to both pursue their dreams as well as address the needed energy transition. Teaming up, they create a consortium code-named Third Stone, with the goal of raising over a trillion dollars to invest in energy solutions.
Any real economic and political union must rank national security as one of its highest priorities, particularly when war looms on that union’s very borders. Since the end of World War II, Western Europe found itself under the comforting umbrella of the US Armed Forces, both directly and via widespread participation in NATO. Since the end of the Cold War, national defence priorities faded further.
In a war economy, the government hand will expand mercilessly as long as price pressures threaten stability. The thinking among policymakers is that rising prices somehow suggest market failure and that more intervention is needed to prevent inflation from destabilising the economy and even society. In 2023, expect broadening price and even wage controls, maybe even something like a new National Board for Prices and Incomes being established in the UK and the US.
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