NEW: FiveThirtyEight's final forecast for Super Tuesday shows a surge for Joe Biden—and lots of uncertainty.
. For instance, if Biden enters the convention with 46 percent of delegates and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg with 10 percent, they could strike a deal where Bloomberg delegates vote for Biden on the first ballot.
Still, in the overnight polling, the numbers for Bloomberg — and to a slightly lesser extent, Sen. Elizabeth Warren — held up better than you might have expected. The model has Bloomberg projected to finish with at least 15 percent of the vote in most states, which is the threshold required to receive delegates allocated at the state and district levels — and it has Warren projected to do so in most states outside of the South.
In delegate terms, Biden is projected to finish about 375 delegates ahead of Sanders in the average simulation — but keep in mind that the average obscures a huge amount of variation. Still, this provides for a helpful benchmark. Bloomberg is projected to finish with an average of 555 delegates and Warren with 283 delegates — so their combined delegate tally projects to be more than twice as large as the projected margin separating Biden and Sanders.
Below are our final forecasts for the 15 states and territories that will finish voting today. As you can see, Biden is favored to win in the seven Southern states, although he is anywhere from aslight front-runner in Texas to a solid favorite in Virginia. And Sanders is favored in the seven remaining states across the Northeast, Midwest and West; his lead is most tenuous in Massachusetts and safest in Vermont.
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