Paul Thomas Anderson is the favorite for Best Director on Kalshi. Can Ryan Coogler or Chloé Zhao pull off an upset? Track the 2026 Oscar markets.
Paul Thomas Anderson is the favorite for Best Director, with Ryan Coogler trailing far behind. Is PTA finally destined for Oscar gold, or can a DGA upset flip the market? We track the latest Kalshi price movements for the 98th Academy Awards.
The nominations for the 98th Academy Awards have solidified a clear favorite in the Best Director category. Competition in some of the acting markets remains strong, but the ‘Yes’ price for Paul Thomas Anderson in this market suggests the director may have finally found the project that will secure his long-awaited first Oscar. The price for a ‘Yes’ contract on Anderson has now surged to dominant levels, leaving industry veterans like Ryan Coogler and Chloé Zhao lagging far behind. But this is the Oscars, and nothing is ever certain until that envelope is opened.The next major market catalyst will be the Directors Guild of America Awards on February 8. If Paul Thomas Anderson takes the main prize, his odds for the Oscar will rise even further. Historically, the DGA Award has been an almost perfect barometer, with only eight instances of the winner going on to miss out on the Academy Award.Paul Thomas Anderson’s ‘Yes’ price climbed to a high of 91¢ in the wake of the the Golden Globes. And while its since dropped to 85¢, it remains by far the most expensive ‘Yes’ in the market. Traders appear to be banking on the overdue narrative, with many industry commentators suggesting that this could be the year that Paul Thomas Anderson gets the Oscar he’s waited so long for. The price of a ‘Yes’ for Ryan Coogler has also been rising recently, though. Coogler currently sits at 13%. Its still far from the implied probability of a win for Paul Thomas Anderson, but market movement suggests that some believe Coogler could pull off an upset.Anderson’s 85¢ price tag indicates that traders see him as a near-lock. His recent win at the Golden Globes has only reinforced the idea that this will be the year that he finally takes the podium.Coogler is currently the most expensive hedge on the board. At 13¢, he represents excellent value for those betting on a last minute shift toward genre-bending filmmaking, though he will likely need a DGA win to move that price much higher.in the Best Actress and Screenplay categories, Zhao’s directorial price has remained fairly stagnant at around 4¢. Traders now appear to be splitting the film's success, and expecting awards for acting and writing rather than directing in this case.If Paul Thomas Anderson is to maintain his 85¢ standing, he must navigate the final precursor events. Historically, the Directors Guild of America winner has a nearly 90% correlation with the eventual Oscar winner, so this is the one to watch as we head towards this year’s Academy Awards. Here’s how things stand at the moment:If Anderson triumphs at the DGA, we fully expect his Kalshi price to move toward 95¢, effectively ending the race before the Oscars even begin.Prediction markets like Kalshi operate more like a stock exchange than a traditional sportsbook. Instead of betting against the house as you would at a sportsbook, you’re trading event contracts with others. Each price represents a probability, so an 85¢ ‘Yes’ contract means the market believes there is an 85% chance of a win. To learn more about the impact of precursor events and how to spot the best value picks, read ourWhile 85% is a commanding lead, it is not a certainty. In prediction markets, locks are generally considered prices above 92¢. A surprise upset at the DGA Awards could still cause the price to drop 30-40¢ in a single evening.The Academy frequently splits the top honors. So, if the market believes Jessie Buckley is a lock for Best Actress and the film is a favorite for Screenplay, voters will often look to reward another film’s director in the director category.The tie contract is currently trading at 1¢. While Oscar ties are incredibly rare , the market still allows traders to hedge against this statistical anomaly at a very low cost. Alexandra Griffiths is a writer and reviewer based in London, UK. Having studied History at the University of York, Alexandra went on to complete a Masters degree in Journalism at the University of Sheffield. From there, Alexandra headed straight into a career in writing, working with well-known sportsbooks, casinos and online gambling companies such as Ladbrokes. Alexandra is passionate about seeking out the next big thing in online gambling, and always has an eye out for new sportsbooks and slots that are set to take the world by storm.Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved. 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