A lot is still uncertain, which is unusual for this stage in the game—but here’s who we think will come out on top in best picture, best actor, and every other Oscar category. (Including the shorts!)
That film, of course, is One Battle After Another. Months ago, VF wondered whether Paul Thomas Anderson’s American epic already had the season all sewn up. In the intervening weeks, it’s won even more best-film awards—from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards to, most recently, best film at the BAFTA Awards and top prize at the PGA Awards.
Normally we’d say that the critically acclaimed feature is a no-brainer pick for best picture at the Oscars too. But the recent surge of Sinners—which just won best ensemble at the Actor Awards, where star Michael B. Jordan also overtook supposed best-actor front-runner Timothée Chalamet—makes this feel like a real, neck and neck two-film race. Could this be a year when best picture and director go to different films? A split such as that one hasn’t happened since 2021, when CODA took the main prize, while Jane Campion became just the third woman to win best director for The Power of the Dog. Now, though, such an unusual outcome feels like a real possibility. To add another layer of drama, the Academy Awards—voted on by more than 10,000 members who are working professionals in the movie industry—use a preferential ballot for the best-picture category. This process makes this category even more challenging to predict, since a large number of number two votes could, in the end, mean more than a smaller number of number ones. As mentioned, the acting races also remain thrillingly up in the air—with the exception of lead actress. Will Chalamet win over Jordan for best actor, or could late-surging Brazilian star Wagner Moura—who also got a Golden Globe for his performance in The Secret Agent—be a surprise spoiler? Will Sean Penn win supporting actor after his two eleventh-hour wins at BAFTA and the Actor Awards? In supporting actress, Amy Madigan, Teyana Taylor, and Wunmi Mosaku have all won awards in the lead-up to the Oscars. So which one will prevail on Oscar night? Some races feel locked, sure. Unless something completely wild happens in March, Anderson will earn his first ever Oscars in the best-director and adapted-screenplay categories. Original screenplay feels very solid as well—and, of course, the phenomenon that is KPop Demon Hunters will almost certainly pick up two Oscars. But overall, we’re looking at one of the most unpredictable races we’ve seen in years—and we’re loving it. The 98th Academy Awards on March 15 will be hosted by returning champ Conan O’Brien from the Dolby Theatre. We’re looking forward to those nail-biting reveals that night, but for now we’ll do our best to predict the winners in such a wild year. Read on to see who Vanity Fair’s experts think will win in every single category in 2026. Best Picture Bugonia F1 Frankenstein Hamnet Marty Supreme PREDICTED WINNER: One Battle After Another The Secret Agent Sentimental Value Sinners Train Dreams What’s wild about the two front-runners for best picture—Sinners and One Battle After Another—is that neither took the “traditional” Oscar-contender release path. These aren’t fall festival premieres that went on to be beloved by cinephiles, selling out theaters in New York and LA but not much else. Instead, they’re both crowd-pleasing blockbusters. Sinners premiered first, released by Warner Bros. back in April, and has amassed $369 million worldwide. One Battle hit theaters in September, and has earned $209 million worldwide. Both had uphill battles with their narratives early on: Ryan Coogler was given a hard time for striking a unique deal that sees the rights to Sinners return to him in 2050. Industry insiders similarly criticized Anderson’s big budget, with reporters saying that the film could never make enough money to be profitable. But both films were also critically acclaimed, and considered extremely relevant to the state of the world today. Their cultural value—as original stories made by filmmakers with specific points of view and a drive to tell these stories—became priceless. At the Golden Globes, One Battle won the top prize for comedy film, and kept winning from then on—picking up the Critics Choice Award as well as a slew of critics’ prizes. Sinners lost the Globe for best drama to Hamnet, which had a lot of early momentum. Sinners instead landed the cinematic-and-box-office-achievement award at the Globes—which, while a win, felt a bit like the kiss of death at the time, because Barbie had won the same prize before struggling at the Oscars. But after Sinners earned 16 Oscar nominations—not only the most of any film that year but also the most ever for a film in a single year—the momentum seemed to shift. Coogler and the cast were greeted in any room with the biggest applause and reactions. It began to feel like, despite the fact that One Battle continued winning, it really was a two-film race. At the PGA Awards, One Battle beat out Sinners again. The PGA has the most consistent record with picking best-picture winners, and has only been wrong two times in the last nine years—when it picked 1917 over Parasite and La La Land over Moonlight. On paper, this feels like the final piece of the puzzle locking in One Battle as the ultimate winner, and it’s the reason we’re still picking it to win best picture. Note, though, that the next day, Sinners won the ensemble prize at the Actor Awards—and there’s no denying that this film has an incredible amount of momentum just as Academy voting is happening. If One Battle proves to be the more polarizing film, then Sinners could have an advantage thanks to preferential ballots where it’s ranked second or third. At this point, best picture truly could go either way. —Rebecca Ford Best Director PREDICTED WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another Ryan Coogler, Sinners Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value Chloé Zhao, Hamnet Paul Thomas Anderson has won the BAFTA, DGA, and Golden Globe for this category. He is the clear front-runner, especially as he’s never won an Oscar despite being nominated three in the category three previous times. His only real competition is Ryan Coogler for Sinners. But this is Coogler’s first nomination for best director, and Anderson has such a breadth of work that this win will feel like a coronation for one of the most influential directors of our generation. —John Ross Best Actress PREDICTED WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value Emma Stone, Bugonia In a season where everything seems to be perpetually changing, there’s one category that has remained constant amid the storm: best actress. You can count on Jessie Buckley to take home her first Oscar for her heart-wrenching work as William Shakespeare’s grieving wife, Agnes, in Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet. While her category is both starry—Emma Stone! Kate Hudson!—and critically acclaimed—Renate Reinsve! Rose Byrne!—it’s Buckley’s to lose. She’s won practically all of the major precursor awards, including the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and, most recently, the Actor Award. For a film that the Academy clearly liked—it received eight nominations, including best picture—Buckley is the surest way to make sure Hamnet doesn’t go home empty-handed. Consider Buckley the last lock left. —Chris Murphy Best Actor Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon PREDICTED WINNER: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent This is the wildest lead-actor race we’ve seen in years. From a crowded field that left several big names without a nomination, these five nominees were the last men standing—and for a time, it seemed like any of them could win. Then Chalamet pulled ahead of the pack, taking the Critics Choice Award and a Golden Globe. While Moura landed the other Golden Globe for lead actor, it felt like the Oscar was Chalamet’s to lose. And then the winds shifted. At BAFTA, the award went to I Swear’s Robert Aramayo; at the Actor Awards, Jordan won. Chalamet’s losses in those back-to-back ceremonies, which have more voter overlap with the Academy than other awards shows, is a very bad sign. True, Jordan hasn’t won any other major awards—but the SAG-AFTRA win is a huge vote of confidence for him. There’s also been a surge of support for Jordan and his performance after an upsetting incident at the BAFTA Awards. The timing of this wave of appreciation makes him the most likely person to win at this point. With the Academy’s new global membership, there’s always a chance Moura could win an upset here after an incredibly charismatic campaign. But we think Jordan and his twice-as-nice performance will lock this one up. —RF Best Supporting Actor Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein Delroy Lindo, Sinners PREDICTED WINNER: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value After his Actor and BAFTA awards wins, it’s looking like Sean Penn is the one to beat in this category. Stellan Skarsgård, who wasn’t nominated for an Actor Award, is nipping at Penn’s heels—but not winning the BAFTA doesn’t bode well for his campaign. So back to Penn: When One Battle After Another was released in theaters, his performance was lauded as a standout in this ensemble film. Yet his reluctance to do awards press made it seem like maybe the Academy would want to reward a more eager actor in this category. Months later, though, that doesn’t appear to be the case. Regardless of Penn’s personal attitude toward awards, it feels like the larger-than-life character of Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw is too good to ignore. —JR Best Supporting Actress Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value Amy Madigan, Weapons Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners PREDICTED WINNER: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another Well, well, well, do we have a race! Not since the days of Tilda Swinton’s surprise win for Michael Clayton has a best-supporting-actress race been this wide open. You can probably safely eliminate both Sentimental Value women, Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, due to the fact that neither has won a major precursor award, and they’ll probably split the vote among Sentimental Value fans anyway. Teyana Taylor took home the Globe for her fiery performance in best-picture front-runner One Battle After Another. Weeks later, Wunmi Mosaku won the BAFTA for her grounded work in Sinners, which only seems to be gaining momentum. But then Amy Madigan emerged victorious at the Actor Awards for her batty performance in Weapons. Between Madigan, Taylor, and Mosaku, the ultimate winner is really anyone’s guess. Based on conventional wisdom, one might give the edge to Madigan because she scored at the Actor Awards—actors are the biggest Academy branch—or Mosaku, whose film is surging right now. But we’re going with VF cover girl Teyana Taylor, who serves as the beating heart of the film to beat . —CM Best Adapted Screenplay Bugonia, screenplay by Will Tracy Frankenstein, written for the screen by Guillermo del Toro Hamnet, screenplay by Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell PREDICTED WINNER: One Battle After Another, written by Paul Thomas Anderson Train Dreams, screenplay by Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar You heard it here first: Even if Sinners upsets One Battle in both best picture and best director—which could definitely happen!—Paul Thomas Anderson will not walk away from another Oscar ceremony without a statuette to his name. The auteur has a staggering 14 nominations, including his haul this year, but has famously never won. It’s tough to see how screenplay, at least, doesn’t go his way, due both to the undeniable strength of Anderson’s Pynchon adaptation—which seamlessly updates a very of-its-time novel for the modern era, keeping all the stuff that worked and replacing whatever didn’t—and to the lack of a strong competitor in this particular category. A few small beers for PTA, please. —HB Best Original Screenplay Blue Moon, written by Robert Kaplow It Was Just an Accident, written by Jafar Panahi; script collaborators: Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian Marty Supreme, written by Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie Sentimental Value, written by Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier PREDICTED WINNER: Sinners, written by Ryan Coogler There’s a lot of love out there for many of these screenplays, especially Sentimental Value and Marty Supreme. If the eventual best-picture winner is competing in this category, it usually wins , and though Sinners is considered to be in a tight race with One Battle After Another for that prize, they’re in different screenplay categories—so Sinners feels like a lock to win here. Ryan Coogler recently made history as the first Black artist ever to win the best-original-screenplay award at the BAFTA Awards. He’s also won this category at the Critics Choice Awards, and is nominated for the WGA Award, which will be handed out March 8. He would be only the second Black writer to ever win this award, following Jordan Peele for Get Out in 2017. —RF Best International Feature The Secret Agent, Brazil It Was Just an Accident, France PREDICTED WINNER: Sentimental Value, Norway Sirāt, Spain The Voice of Hind Rajab, Tunisia Sentimental Value isn’t just the most nominated non-English-language film at the Oscars this year—it’s one of the most nominated movies period, with nine total nods . That’s the same number of nominations as Marty Supreme. So, clearly, the support for this film runs deep—even if Kleber Mendonça Filho’s The Secret Agent has been surging at just the right moment. It’s very possible that The Secret Agent gets over the finish line here, particularly if Sentimental Value wins in other categories . The Brazilian drama has, after all, won plenty of awards already, including the Globe for best non-English-language film. Still, we think Joachim Trier’s emotional multigenerational saga will pull this one out in the end. —HB Best Documentary Feature The Alabama Solution Come See Me in the Good Light Cutting Through Rocks Mr. Nobody Against Putin PREDICTED WINNER: The Perfect Neighbor This Netflix true-crime documentary about Black single mother Ajike Owens, who was killed in 2023 by her white neighbor Susan Lorincz, won best-documentary honors from both the Critics Choice and Independent Spirit Awards, making it the undeniable favorite on Oscar night. During a recent conversation with Vanity Fair, director Geeta Gandbhir pointed out that her film is one of multiple nominated docs to rely on found footage. That list includes potential category spoilers like the BAFTA-winning Mr. Nobody Against Putin, about a Russian teacher who secretly documents his small-town school’s embrace of pro-war propaganda during the Ukraine invasion, and HBO’s The Alabama Solution, codirected by The Jinx’s Andrew Jarecki—but shot largely on contraband cellphones by inmates of the state. —Savannah Walsh Best Animated Feature Arco Elio PREDICTED WINNER: KPop Demon Hunters Little Amélie or the Character of Rain Zootopia 2 Netflix’s musical juggernaut has already won 10 Annie awards and two Golden Globes, is the platform’s most-watched film of all time and was the most-streamed movie of 2025. It has inspired everything from toys to clothing to Halloween costumes to a Rumi-themed puzzle in a ramen noodle box. Its limited theatrical run made it ineligible at the BAFTAs—but not at the Oscars, baby. In other words: sorry, Zootopia. —HB Best Cinematography Frankenstein, Dan Laustsen Marty Supreme, Darius Khondji One Battle After Another, Michael Bauman PREDICTED WINNER: Sinners, Autumn Durald Arkapaw Train Dreams, Adolpho Veloso This is a close race between Michael Bauman for One Battle After Another and Autumn Durald Arkapaw for Sinners. Arkapaw would make history if she won this award; she’d be the first woman ever to earn a cinematography Oscar. Sinners used 70-mm IMAX cameras and alternating aspect ratios throughout the film. This type of technical wizardry adds to Arkapaw’s narrative and makes her a compelling choice for voters. However, Bauman shot One Battle After Another on VistaVision, another rare format. It’s truly a neck and neck race, with the American Society of Cinematographers’ winner not being announced until March 8. Whoever wins that award will likely win the Oscar—but since we can’t predict the future, let’s assume for now that the historic nature of Arkapaw’s win will push this over the edge. —JR Best Editing F1, Stephen Mirrione Marty Supreme, Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie PREDICTED WINNER: One Battle After Another, Andy Jurgensen Sentimental Value, Olivier Bugge Coutté Sinners, Michael P. Shawver Another pretty predictable category: Expect best film editing to go to Jurgensen. To make a two-and-a-half-hour film feel as propulsive and engaging as One Battle After Another does is no easy feat, and a lot of that is due to his skill as an editor. One Battle gives Jurgensen multiple sequences to show off his prowess—the tracking shot through Sergio St. Carlos’s apartment and the final, climactic car chase both come to mind—and as Paul Thomas Anderson’s longtime collaborator, onetime Oscar nominee Jurgensen also benefits from the “he’s overdue” narrative. While One Battle After Another may be losing steam in other categories, it’s still got the juice in editing. —CM Best Original Song “Dear Me,” Diane Warren: Relentless PREDICTED WINNER: “Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters “I Lied to You,” Sinners “Sweet Dreams of Joy,” Viva Verdi! “Train Dreams,” Train Dreams Is this the easiest category to predict this year? Probably. KPop Demon Hunters’ “Golden,” the cultural phenomenon that took over the ears and minds of every elementary-school-aged child and their parents for months, is winning. There’s lots of admiration for Sinners’ “I Lied to You,” so if I had to pick a possible upset, I guess it would be that. But there will be no upset here. “Golden” is going up, up, up. And for that reason, I’m sorry to say Diane Warren’s record number of nominations without a win will remain intact. —RF Best Casting Hamnet, Nina Gold Marty Supreme, Jennifer Venditti One Battle After Another, Cassandra Kulukundis The Secret Agent, Gabriel Domingues PREDICTED WINNER: Sinners, Francine Maisler This is a brand-new category at this year’s Oscars, making it hard to predict who will win. It will likely come down to two legends in their fields: Cassandra Kulukundis and Francine Maisler. Kulukundis has worked with Paul Thomas Anderson on all his films, and is responsible for finding Chase Infiniti for the lead role of Willa in One Battle After Another. The film hinges on her performance, making her a true discovery. Maisler, meanwhile, has cast everything from Succession to the original Spider-Man. Her body of work is staggering, and the ensemble nature of Sinners, which mixes legendary actors like Delroy Lindo with newcomers like Miles Caton, showcases a casting director who is still at the top of her game. —JR Best Original Score Bugonia, Jerskin Fendrix Frankenstein, Alexandre Desplat Hamnet, Max Richter One Battle After Another, Jonny Greenwood PREDICTED WINNER: Sinners, Ludwig Göransson The long-haired Swede is due for a three-peat, having previously won for Oppenheimer and another Ryan Coogler joint, Black Panther. Sure, the competition seems stiff—Alexandre Desplat has also won twice before, while Jonny Greenwood and Jerskin Fendrix are previous nominees. Max Richter is responsible for one of the most frequently heard compositions of the last 20 years. But Sinners is a movie about music, which gives Ludwig Göransson the edge. —HB Best Costume Design Avatar: Fire and Ash, Deborah L. Scott PREDICTED WINNER: Frankenstein, Kate Hawley Hamnet, Malgosia Turzanska Marty Supreme, Miyako Bellizzi Sinners, Ruth E. Carter With last year’s winner, Paul Tazewell, knocked out of a category he ostensibly could have won again , best costume design is a little bit of a coin flip this year. While one shouldn’t count out Sinners costume designer Ruth E. Carter, who made history as the first Black woman to win the category for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, best costume will most likely go to Kate Hawley for the sumptuous period gowns found in Frankenstein. Admittedly, it would be really fun to see a surprise win for Marty Supreme here—those suits were to die for—but Del Toro’s monster epic is a force too great to be reckoned with, at least in the craft categories. —CM Best Makeup and Hairstyling PREDICTED WINNER: Frankenstein Kokuho Sinners The Smashing Machine The Ugly Stepsister For a category that had a few noticeable snubs—where’s Marty Supreme’s nomination for Timmy’s pockmarked face?—one film has risen to the top of the pack: Frankenstein. Like many of his previous films, Guillermo del Toro’s latest monster movie has performed very well in the below-the-line fields, with six of its nine nominations coming in craft categories. Its only major competition in makeup and hairstyling from another best-picture nominee is Sinners, which will be awarded in other categories. So expect the Academy to shower a little love on Frankenstein here. Plus, it probably took a hell of a lot of makeup to turn six-foot-five Jacob Elordi blue; for that alone, it deserves to win. —CM Best Production Design PREDICTED WINNER: Frankenstein Hamnet Marty Supreme One Battle After Another Sinners Guillermo del Toro is a master of visuals, and Frankenstein utilized every trick in the book. Combining Victorian-era science fiction with a bold color palette, production designer Tamara Deverell created a self-contained magical world. Plus, she had to design a lot of sets. A lot of sets. The sheer amount of work that went into this film is likely to garner her an Oscar. But don’t count out Sinners or One Battle After Another, which are front-runners in the best-picture category. Voters sometimes just go down the ballot, voting for their best-picture winner in the craft categories—unless there is an absolute standout in any given race. —JR Best Visual Effects PREDICTED WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash F1 Jurassic World Rebirth The Lost Bus Sinners The first two Avatar movies won this category in 2010 and 2023, respectively; the third recently swept the Visual Effects Society Awards, winning in seven separate categories . When it comes to visual effects at the Oscars, don’t bet against blue. —HB Best Sound PREDICTED WINNER: F1 Frankenstein One Battle After Another Sinners Sirāt With a few exceptions , this award has gone to movies with big, bold, loud sound—and often some sort of vehicle that goes vroom, vroom, zoom. Ford v Ferrari, Top Gun: Maverick, and both Dune films have all won the category in recent years. Sometimes, a musical film can win—but we think F1 is going to take this one over the finish line. —RF Best Live-Action Short Butcher’s Stain A Friend of Dorothy Jane Austen’s Period Drama The Singers PREDICTED WINNER: Two People Exchanging Saliva Ah, the pesky categories that can make or break an office Oscar pool. This year’s Oscar-nominated live-action shorts transport viewers everywhere from a modern-day American dive bar to a Regency-era British estate, telling stories of queer identity and Middle East politics in under 40 minutes each. But none feel quite as inventive or thought-provoking as Two People Exchanging Saliva. Don’t let the title of this New Yorker–backed doc deter you: Directors Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata present an alternate black-and-white universe where kissing has been outlawed. But a forbidden Carol-esque attraction between a young shopgirl and her wealthy, wounded customer courts disaster in this futuristic dystopia. —SW Best Animated Short PREDICTED WINNER: Butterfly Forevergreen The Girl Who Cried Pearls Retirement Plan The Three Sisters Familiar faces abound in this oft-overlooked category. Konstantin Bronzit, who directed The Tree Sisters, was nominated for this same award in 2009 and 2016. The Girl Who Cried Pearls, which is backed by Canada’s National Film Board, comes from Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski, the Oscar-nominated duo behind 2008 best-animated-short nominee Madame Tutli-Putli. Retirement Plan, a New Yorker short, is voiced by actor Domhnall Gleeson. Forevergreen’s directors worked as animators on Zootopia. But after seeing all of the animated shorts in a sold-out Brooklyn theater, something tells me Academy voters will remember Butterfly, a visually lush biopic of French swimmer Alfred Nakache. The Algerian-born Jew competed for France in the 1936 Olympics, then returned for the 1948 London Games after surviving Auschwitz, where Nakache’s wife and daughter were killed. Florence Miailhe’s 15-minute film mimics the look of impressionistic paintings—and includes a powerful footnote about the filmmaker’s personal connection to her subject. —SW Best Documentary Short PREDICTED WINNER: All the Empty Rooms Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” The Devil Is Busy Perfectly a Strangeness Arguments could be made for most of these movies with a message—from The Devil Is Busy, which documents a typical day at an Atlanta abortion clinic, to Children No More, about a weekly Tel Aviv vigil in memory of children killed in Gaza. But the current odds-on favorite is All the Empty Rooms, in which director Joshua Seftel follows CBS News reporter Steve Hartman and photographer Lou Bopp as they capture the untouched bedrooms of children killed in school shootings. In addition to powerful imagery, this Netflix-distributed doc has the category’s most visible promotion—by Hartman himself on his regular CBS Sunday Morning gig, as well as some of the network’s affiliates. —SW
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